Stuff we felt like writing about

July 06, 2008

Testing Your Ideology

By BJ

Via TMV, I came across this site called The Political Compass for testing one's political leanings across both the economic and social axes. Definitely one of the better sites I've seen of this type. My own scores are:

Economic Left/Right: -1.79
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -3.71

Bouncing around some of the other pages on the site, I found that the Canadian political party closest to my own views would be the separatist Bloc Quebecois, which is kind of a chuckle. The placement of the US Presidential candidates aren't much of a surprise, but does explain why a lot of lefties are having some problems with Obama these days.

Anyway, take the test, and post your results if you're of mind to. I admit to being curious.

July 03, 2008

Happy 4th

By Ron Beasley

Picture taken in Berkley, CA - 1975

Berkley7501

July 01, 2008

Happy Canada Day

By BJ

Canada's birthday today, and something you all should play close attention to, given that the Washington Times informs us that a President Obama will try and remake the US in Canada's image. To which I can only say, you should be so lucky. (Also rather ironic given our current government is set on turning Canada into a Bushified version of the US.) I suppose it does help explain some of these poll results though.

In any case, to prepare you for your conversion and assimilation into Canadian culture, I'll leave you with some timeless advice from the McKenzie brothers.

If anyone needs me, too bad. I'm going out to enjoy the day.

June 29, 2008

Gay pride and peace

Human_peace_sign_608 By Libby

I've been slacking off all morning, but here's a timely link to live coverage of today's San Francisco gay pride parade which should be starting just about now if I calculated the time change correctly. It wasn't live yet when I checked a few minutes ago, but one assumes it will be soon.

Also, following up on my earlier post about the largest human peace symbol, as you can see in the photo, they assembled almost 6,000 people and it seems likely they will get certified as a world record. Still no YouTube of the event, but Marc A. Catone, who was there in the left branch, promises to send a link as soon as it's up. [Marc by the way may possibly be the biggest remaining Beatles fan in the US.]

Kings Of Speed

By Cernig

Well, now we know where at least some of the profit from $140-a-barrel oil is getting spent. From the Financial Times:

Seizures of amphetamines have risen sharply in Saudi Arabia, suggesting a surge in consumption of the illegal stimulant in the kingdom, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) reported yesterday.

Saudi Arabia accounted for 28 per cent of all global amphetamine seizures in 2006, the latest year for which data are available, according to the UNODC's annual report.

The quantities impounded in the kingdom started to rise sharply in 2004 and reached 12.3 tonnes in 2006. "This is equivalent to the sum of all UK seizures - the biggest amphetamine market in Europe - from 2000 to 2006," the report said.

A further two tonnes of amphetamines destined for Saudi Arabia were seized in neighbouring Oman.

Either the Saudis are having to work very hard, and using speed to keep up, or the high price of oil means its time to Paaarty!

(H/t Kat)

June 27, 2008

Big Coal Fights Back

I told you about Nanosolar's new solar panels that can produce electricity cheaper than coal in Solar Gets Competitive and yesterday I reported on their increased production. Well this morning thanks to our researcher, Kat, we can see why most of Nanosolar's production is being exported rather that being used to help the US.

Citing Need for Assessments, U.S. Freezes Solar Energy Projects

DENVER — Faced with a surge in the number of proposed solar power plants, the federal government has placed a moratorium on new solar projects on public land until it studies their environmental impact, which is expected to take about two years.

The Bureau of Land Management says an extensive environmental study is needed to determine how large solar plants might affect millions of acres it oversees in six Western states — Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Utah.

But the decision to freeze new solar proposals temporarily, reached late last month, has caused widespread concern in the alternative-energy industry, as fledgling solar companies must wait to see if they can realize their hopes of harnessing power from swaths of sun-baked public land, just as the demand for viable alternative energy is accelerating.

“It doesn’t make any sense,” said Holly Gordon, vice president for legislative and regulatory affairs for Ausra, a solar thermal energy company in Palo Alto, Calif. “The Bureau of Land Management land has some of the best solar resources in the world. This could completely stunt the growth of the industry.”

Much of the 119 million surface acres of federally administered land in the West is ideal for solar energy, particularly in Arizona, Nevada and Southern California, where sunlight drenches vast, flat desert tracts.

Galvanized by the national demand for clean energy development, solar companies have filed more than 130 proposals with the Bureau of Land Management since 2005. They center on the companies’ desires to lease public land to build solar plants and then sell the energy to utilities.

Big coal has high hopes for the future and many friends in the Congress, White House and Federal Government.  While the Republicans fight for more coal, oil and gas exploration on Federal Lands they continue to put road blocks up for alternatives.

June 26, 2008

The Age Of The Sun

By Ron Beasley

I was not a big fan of solar power until a heard about Nanosolar about six months ago.  I reported on it here.  Nanosolar has developed a process to print thin film solar cells instead of using the slow and expensive vacuum deposition process.  As a result they can produce panels for solar installations that $2.00 a watt making it cheaper than $2.10 a watt plus fuel for a new coal fired plant.  Check the above links for additional details.

Well via Big Gav we find out that Nanosolar has reached an amazing production level.

As we are busy ramping our operation, we almost forgot to recognize achieving a major milestone in solar technology: The solar industry’s first 1GW production tool. Here it is:

Most production tools in the solar industry tend to have 10-30MW in annual production capacity. How is it possible to have a single tool with Gigawatt throughput?

This feat is fundamentally enabled through the proprietary nanoparticle ink we have invested so many years developing. It allows us to deliver efficient solar cells (presently up to more than 14%) that are simply printed.

Printing is a simple, fast, and robust coating process that in particular eliminates the need for expensive high-vacuum chambers and the kinds of high-vacuum based deposition techniques from industries where there’s a lot more $/sqm available for competitive manufacturing cost.

Our 1GW CIGS coater cost $1.65 million. At the 100 feet-per-minute speed shown in the video, that’s an astonishing two orders of magnitude more capital efficient than a high-vacuum process: a twenty times slower high-vacuum tool would have cost about ten times as much per tool.

Plus if we cared to run it even faster, we could. (The same coating technique works in principle for speeds up to 2000 feet-per-minute too. In fact, it turns out the faster we run, the better the coating!)

Nanostar received no US government funding and much of their current production is going to Germany.

June 23, 2008

Mandela's 90th Birthday Present

By Cernig

London is set to hold an allmighty birthday bash for inspirational statesman Nelson Mandela.

The great man reaches this landmark year on July 18, but the fun kicks off on Friday with a special birthday concert for charity in London.Performers including Queen, Leona Lewis, Razorlight, Dame Shirley Bassey, Amy Winehouse (if she is well enough) and the Sugababes will be playing to a crowd of 46,664 people in Hyde Park.

If that seems a strange number it is also a particularly poignant one - 46664 was Nelson's prisoner numb er during his incarceration on Robben Island, and is now the moniker of his Aids charity. Friday's extravaganza comes 20 years after the Free Nelson Mandela concert at Wembley Stadium to call for his release and to mark his 70th birthday.

Simple Minds, who helped organise the 1988 concert, will also be performing at this one, as will Annie Lennox, who was there at the outset of his 46664 charity.

British PM Gordon Brown is among the many paying tribute to Mandela as the great man reaches 90.

"Nelson Mandela is a leader no prison cell, no intimidation, no threat could silence. A man whose belief in the future was so powerful that not even 27 years behind bars and barbed wire could destroy his dream that millions could be free.

"So today, as we follow that dream, we fight to create a new age of Mandela, a new age of global justice. Happy birthday, Madiba."

Which leaves it looking ridiculous that the Nobel Peace Prize winner is on America's terrorism no-fly list. It's a legacy of the Reagan-era Republican's backing of Apartheid. As a 90th birthday present, there's a bill in Congress to rescind the ANC's status as a terrorist organisation, a status that dates from Reagan's backing for bigotry. The bill is certain to pass. What is shameful is that it has waited this long.

June 22, 2008

Picture of the week

Swallowtail1 I have had company the last few days and so I have been AWOL.  If truth be known I have not been very inspired either.  Nature always inspires me which is why I hate to see it being destroyed.  I took this picture of a swallowtail butterfly at a hanging basket outside my back door.  I used a telephoto lens from inside the house.

Click on the picture for a larger image.

June 21, 2008

World's largest human peace sign

By Libby

They're going to establish the Guinness World record tomorrow for the largest human peace sign at 3:00pm in Ithaca, NY. They're expecting thousands.

The Ithaca Festival, a 30-year tradition celebrating "our community and the creative artist in each of us," has embraced the idea as part of its "I Am Ithaca" theme for 2008. Trevor Dougherty, a sophomore at Ithaca High School, is organizing the event. Dubbed "Ithaca's YouTuber" by the Ithaca Journal last year, he will also aid in the creation and web syndication of a viral video documenting the event. One of his past videos, a video for peace, has received worldwide attention. You can view it here.

Sounds like a fun event and with no official record haven't been recorded, if you live near Ithaca -- you could help set one. I don't live nearby myself, but I like Trevor's work so I'll be looking forward to the YouTube.

[Post <a href="http://www.newshoggers.com/blog/2008/06/gay-pride-and-p.html">updated here</a>.]

June 18, 2008

The helicopters come back

By Libby

Long time readers know my history with odd helicopter sightings. For those who don't suffice it to say, in the three and a half years I've lived here in NC, I've had a lot of them, ever since I was visited early on by someone I'm sure was a federal agent of some kind.

It's been a while since I last saw one, but they made up for it today with the five helicopters that flew right over my McPartment early this morning. I just went to the nearby convenience store this afternoon and darn if all five didn't pop up over the tree line again. I didn't think too much of it. It being election season, I'm figuring with that many aircraft together they could have been ferrying some candidate around.

The really odd part was that I went straight home within ten minutes. Moments after I arrived, a single helicopter buzzed straight over my deck, and then circled the perihery of the McCompound for a couple of minutes, still within sight of the deck. Then it came in and circled right over my deck -- twice -- before it flew off. Weird.

Again I'm sure there's a reasonable explanation for this, but since I've been logging the sightings right along, it seems worth mentioning.

June 14, 2008

Scotland U20 41-14 USA U20

By Cernig

When it comes to sports, first and foremost I'm a Rugby Union fan - I used to play in high school and at university. The Scotland squads have been utterly abyssmal of late but there are signs of an improvement. The youngsters, in particular, are showing signs of remembering how to play the game. USA played a strong game, especially their forwards - I suspect a bit of American Football style brawn and grunting came in handy there. The first team, mind you, turned out a creditable performance today too, beating Argentina 26 - 14.

I know a couple of US rugby players down here in San Antonio - there's a very creditable local team. Hard as nails, all of them, recalling Giles from Buffy's infamous quote: "I just think it's rather odd that a nation that prides itself on its virility should feel compelled to strap on forty pounds of protective gear just in order to play rugby."

If you get a chance and you're an American Football fan, watch or play some rugby. I think you'll find it faster, requires more stamina (they don't stop every few minutes for commercials) and a very tough, physical game.

June 11, 2008

Philosophy, Technology and Gas Prices

By Ron Beasley

Yesterday when I read Fester's Gas, Distance and Equity Destruction I was taken back to a graduate level course in Urban Geography I took in the early 70s.  Fester wrote:

Trading space for time is not just the classic Russian defensive strategy. It is our settlement pattern. 

Gas is a substitute for location.  People buy and burn gas because they are unable or unwilling to buy a location.  Suburbanization can be viewed through this lens as a means of trading expensive urban land for cheaper ring/fringe land.  This trade has made sense for many people as the travel costs were assumed to be relatively low as roads are heavily subsidized and gasoline was not a significant deterrent. 

People make their mortgage/purchase decisions based on total cost of ownership which includes the costs of living life and getting to and from work.  Individuals who live closer to their job have, all else being equal, lower commuting costs.  This allows them to shift commute expenditures to other expense categories, including housing.  Living further out and thus increasing commute costs often lead to the trade-off of lower housing prices, all else being equal. 

Trade-offs that made sense when gas was $1.80/gallon often do not make  sense when gas was $3.00/gallon and make even less sense when it has just topped $4.00/gallon.  Assuming home prices are smooth, which is a completely unreasonable assumption, significant drops in home values could be expected as the supportable house prices have to decline to meet the commute costs.

In that course 36 years ago I was introduced to the philosophy of Lewis Mumford, a historian of technology and urban development.  He saw the promise of technology but also recognized the threat.  In his 1934 book, Technics & Civilization,  he identified how the way we could think of technology is two fold.

  • Polytechnic, which enlists many different modes of technology, providing a complex framework to solve human problems.
  • Monotechnic which is technology only for its own sake, which oppresses humanity as it moves along its own trajectory.

In the first we use technology to improve our lives.  In the second we become slaves to the technology.  And yes, 74 years ago Mumford identified the increasing reliance on the automobile as an example of the second. 

June 07, 2008

Happy Birthday Prince

Prince

By Libby

I was surprised to learn Prince turned 50 today. I saw him not so very long ago doing a big half time show in the rain and he still looked young.

I would have posted a video in honor of the ocassion but he's so paranoid about protecting his work, you can't get one. They apparently even block the sound on the YouTube covers. Bizarre. I liked some of his songs but his whole prima donna persona always bugged me so I wasn't a big fan. Anyway, it's odd to think of him as getting old.

The same for Michael Jackson, who will turn 50 in August, although I don't find that as jarring. I suppose because I watched him grow up.

June 06, 2008

Rising Fuel Costs and the Arctic

By BJ

While the Arctic may be the place most affected by climate change, at least so far, it is also one of the areas most dependent on fossil fuels for its survival. Not only are they necessary for transportation in and out of the communities, but fuel oil is most commonly used for heating houses, and significantly, diesel generators are the major source of power generation. As summer approaches and the bulk fuel supplies are being lined up, the very high cost of all that fuel is causing more than a few people great concern, and the region's governments considerable budgetary headaches.

Village electric utilities in rural Alaska, panicked over the sky-high cost of fuel arriving on the summer's first barges, are appealing to the state for help.

The fuel bill for the Alaska Village Electric Cooperative, which serves 53 small villages in the west of the state, is leaping from $14 million last year to $26 million. That cost will be reflected in electricity rate increases that some villagers cannot afford, said Meera Kohler, the co-op's president.

In the village of Eek, for example, residents are looking at electric bills increasing another one-third to one-half. Eek, near the mouth of the Kuskokwim River, has an average household income of only $17,500, according to the federal census. Many families already have a hard time paying electric bills that run to $300 a month, said city clerk Fritz Petluska.

. . .

And that was the price of electricity when they were burning last winter's diesel. Now that the season's first fuel barge has unloaded, the price of diesel just jumped $3 to $7.50 a gallon, Sweetsir said.

The article discusses several new subsidy proposals being bandied about in addition to the current ones already in place. Alaska currently has the good fortune of being an oil producer that can pour that income into such subsidies. In any case, the debate is one I recognize from the other side of continent.

The Nunavut government is preparing for a much higher fuel bill this year, just as the annual fuel resupply is set to begin this summer.

Finance officials estimate the government will spend $70 million to $85 million more on fuel this year than last, Finance Minister Louis Tapardjuk told MLAs in the legislative assembly Friday.

That increase alone is nearly as much as the government's entire capital budget for this year.

The good news about all of this is that it is finally bringing people around to the idea of using the rather abundant winds to generate power locally and more economically, not to mention the whole environmentally-friendly part.

It's long been the Canadian Arctic's dirty little secret: Most of its remote communities are powered solely by diesel.

But with soaring oil prices and growing concerns about climate change, the Northwest Territories is considering a renewable energy solution that could one day see wind farms sprouting in the Far North.

"Our Arctic coast villages are on the front lines of climate change and seeing the effects on a daily basis," explained Wade Carpenter, the territorial government's alternative-energy specialist. "Wind can help us reduce our dependency on diesel and it fits in well with the Inuvialuit principles of using the land."

There is of course, still some resistance to the idea thanks to the uneven history of such projects.

However, the idea of wind energy has blown through the Canadian Arctic before, with disastrous results.

Yukon is the only territory left with a handful of active wind turbines. Those that were set up as pilot projects by NWT, prior to the creation of Nunavut, in the 1980s and 1990s have all either fallen down, broken down or have been dismantled.

. . .

"Doing anything in the Arctic is more expensive and challenging," he said, adding that trained staff is hard to find and equipment wears out a lot quicker because of the cold and harsh climate.

"The Arctic is incredibly hard on machines. If something has a design life of 20 years, in the Arctic that would be two or three," he explained.

He said when those costs and challenges, such as maintenance and atmospheric issues, began to pile up, the industry and federal government lost interest in the North and concentrated its efforts in provinces such as Alberta and Ontario.

The technology for wind generation has improved significantly since the last attempt, and with ever rising oil prices, the cost-benefit relationship is swinging towards alternatives at an ever-increasing rate. (Though as a note, if trained staff is hard to find to maintain windmills, why would anyone seriously consider nuclear reactors? I do think nuclear power plants will be a necessity in the near future, but they should be limited to places where they can be assured of qualified people to run them.)

It is not just the extreme north that is pushing this idea, but the extreme south as well, with New Zealand and Belgium looking to at least partially power their stations in Antarctica using wind, (the Belgians completely so).

Both seem to be following in the footsteps of the Australians, who started putting wind turbines up at their Mawson station in 2001/02. They have a very neat page where you can see real-time data on their power system. The station is also looking at further means of reducing fuel use, including using excess wind power to generate hydrogen to use for transportation and power generation when the wind itself isn't enough.

Of course, tiny, isolated outposts in Antarctica are a far cry from most places, but they are excellent test beds, as are small, isolated communities in the Arctic. It is far easier to transform the infrastructure of a single community than of an entire inter-connected continent. If we are ever to move to a hydrogen economy, such places make for perfect laboratories. (Though whether or not hydrogen or more purely electric technology wins out in the end, or more likely winds up sharing the stage, is actually far less relevant than where the energy itself is coming from.)

On a larger scale, Iceland is working to prove they can run their nation without fossil fuels, mainly since they don't have any and don't like the idea of being dependent on others for their energy needs. Their example of using locally available means for meeting their energy needs is one we should all be paying very close attention to, since it is likely that we will be forced down that path ourselves in the very near future.

June 05, 2008

Group hug pending

By Libby

The rhetoric got so vicious in the course of this contest, I'm sure it's going to take a while for the wounds to heal. For some few who will refuse to stop picking at the scab of their sore disappointments, maybe they never will but this certainly gives me hope this morning.

No one is making that healing easier than Obama. Last night, after he had finished the sort of speech that leaves his followers exhilarated and exhausted, Obama did not just leave the arena. Nor did he head to the nearest television camera or the nearest fat cat. Instead, he went to a room where the Clinton supporters had been gathered and one by one, shook the hands of the 25 people, stopping to chat with each of them.

Of course no one can really predict how things will play out in the months to come but I believe Obama will be able to heal the party and move it in a new direction. I hope we end up in a better place.

As for Blogtopia, I wonder if it will ever be the same. I have a feeling it's going to take a long time to rebuild all the burned bridges. I'm pretty sure it's never going to be the same as it was before this election but I have to believe we'll mostly find our comity again.

June 04, 2008

Say what?

By BJ

Via Balloon Juice, this snippet from the Economist blog:

Presumably I'm late to the ball noticing this, but it's just struck me how often Mr Obama falls into a rhetorical pattern of three anapests and a spondee.

Every now and again, I have to remind myself that English is in fact my first language, and that as a result, the above sentence probably should make sense to me. Oh well.

May 30, 2008

It's not you, it's your ideas

By Fester:

Right now if I was running a campaign for a generic Republican challenger against a generic Democrat with no major wife beating, coke sniffing or money freezing problems, my job would be extraordinary tough as the generic issue and political environment is not favorable to my candidate.  I would also be faced with significant internal party pressures to either become more hardline conservative or to be labeled a RINO.  This would not be fun; although it would be challenging. 

Given some recent polling, I would be tempted to advise my candidate to say absolutely nothing on policy beyond puppies are good and run on the brand of being a Republican?  Am I crazy on recommending running away from an issue campaign and running towards a branding campaign?  I don't think so, even though my hypothetical employer would be facing an uphill climb either way and would most likely lose in November as the Next Right is analyzing some very interesting brand and policy polling data:

Let’s take a deeper look into the data and see how our messages play when voters know where they’re from and when they don’t know which party is saying what.  If you want the exact wording of both parties’ message and the full data, go back and take a second look at the poll.

Let’s start with the economy. When voters know what party each message comes from, we loose 37% to 58% and trail among independents by 18%.  Ouch. However, when you read both messages without telling voters who they come from, the story gets worse.

Republican voters like the Democrat’s message more than their own party’s message by a large 14% margin when they don’t know which party it comes from.  Just as disturbing, numbers among independents drop by another 10%... giving the Democrats a massive 28% advantage.  Even our horrifically damaged image is better than our message on the economy.  Independents and even Republicans simply like the Democrats’ plan more than ours.

Iraq and trade both follow the exact same pattern.  We’re getting smashed on both issues on the partisan test, but when you look at the nonpartisan test where our damaged image isn’t a factor, the numbers get even worse among Independents and Republicans.  A few Democrats (and in the case of trade a bunch of Democrats) move our way on the nonpartisan ballot.......

 Among Republicans, support for the GOP message on taxes drops by a gargantuan 53% when the party’s names are removed, leaving the Democrats with a 14% advantage.....  

The takeaway? Our message right now is electoral poison and this isn’t all about “brand.”


OUCH!!!  Branding and consistency of messaging is important but only when the ideas are palatable or can be made palatable to a decent fraction of the population.  Instead what we are seeing right here is the elements of a realigning movement as the Republican Party is rejecting the Republican Party.  Residual loyalty and long-standing brand imaging is currently supporting Republican Party fortunes and not causing disproportionate harm.  Staying away from policy and running as a generic sunshine candidate may be the best that most Republicans could do this fall. 

John McCain has been trying to run a campaign as an anti-Bush change agent who, on most issues, is presenting standard issue Republican policy tropes and when he is not, he is either ill-informed, unengaged, or seeking minimalist defensive measures instead of proactive solutions such as on greenhouse gases auctions.  Right now he is about even in the daily tracking polls although his electoral map is a losing map as of this morning.  So this polling information is reassuring that although the McCain Brand is stronger than the Republican brand, his solution set has very little salience with the public.


Social Aggregation Aggravation

By Fester:

I just signed up for Facebook this week because one of my good friends is the de facto group photographer and the holder of the vast majority of photos of me that have been taken since my wedding.  He had previously hosted the digital images on a personal website but has migrated the albums to Facebook while closing the personal site.  Another good friend, my roommate from college, has been harassing me to send her a recent picture of my wife and I so I was stuck.  The only source of recent digital photos were on Facebook so I succumbed.  And now this is one damn many social networking systems I belong too --- twitter.com, LinkedIn, Facebook, Boxbe and a couple of others that I have spent thirty minutes on at some point.  There has to be a better way of integrating these different systems into a seamless system so that I can keep an eye on some high school buddies as they are rocking out in New York like I thought they would have ten years ago while having brief, high value tweets on urban resiliency... I wonder if there is a system that can integrate multiple social networking feeds into a single unified portal/interface so that if the same person is showing up on my Facebook and LinkedIn buddy lists their relevant information is combined....

[/end rant]

May 26, 2008

Sign Of The Apocalypse?

Or just a symptom of early senility brought on by two many years of blood vessel popping outrage?

Old Walrus Face, John Bolton, who never met a war he didn't like...now thinks Israel should negotiate directly with Iran?

Neville!

(Snark By Cernig)

That Was Then, This Is Now

By Cernig

Bronwen Maddox, Chief Foreign Commentator of the London Times, has a typically confused report today on Jimmy Carter's revelations about Israeli nukes. It's headlined "Jimmy Carter says Israel had 150 nuclear weapons" and then the main story says that "Israel has 150 nuclear weapons in its arsenal, former President Jimmy Carter said yesterday". This kind of confusion is typical of Maddox. She might be a foreign affairs guru (and to be honest, I'm not all that impressed) but she really could do with a better editor.

I suspect the "had" in the headline is the correct tense - since Carter hasn't been president for a while now and thus unlikely to be privy to current Israeli weapon counts. That preserves Israel's strategic ambiguity - everyone has known for forever that Israel has nukes and, normally, current estimates say about 200 of them but no-one is certain...still. Heck, Israel might have secretly unilaterally disarmed in the last two years for all we peons know although Olmert and Bob Gates both indicated they still had them in 2006. But that won't stop the American Right getting faux-outraged that Carter revealed another nation's decades-old secret.

Update: The BBC has the whole Carter quote, which reveals he was guessing in line with expert estimates.

Mr Carter gave the figure for the Israeli nuclear arsenal in response to a question on US policy on a possible nuclear-armed Iran, arguing that any country newly armed with atomic weapons faced overwhelming odds.

"The US has more than 12,000 nuclear weapons; the Soviet Union (sic) has about the same; Great Britain and France have several hundred, and Israel has 150 or more," he said.

...Most experts estimate that Israel has between 100 and 200 nuclear warheads, largely based on information leaked to the Sunday Times newspaper in the 1980s by Mordechai Vanunu, a former worker at the country's Dimona nuclear reactor.

The US, a key ally of Israel, has in general followed the country's policy of "nuclear ambiguity", neither confirming or denying the existence of its assumed arsenal.

However, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert included Israel among a list of nuclear states in comments in December 2006, a week after US Defence Secretary Robert Gates used a similar form of words during a Senate hearing.

Oh Noes! Jimmuh guessed right in the middle of previous guesses about something even the Israeli PM has admitted to! Lock him up for revealing non-secrets and endangering America's...umm...national security! What could terr'ists do with such information they couldn't already do? Umm....

May 21, 2008

Turnpike Peletons

By Fester:

     My wife and I made a cannon-ball run to northern New Jersey to watch my mother in law graduate with her master's degree yesterday, so we spent way too much time on the Turnpike.  And this is an observation that may be born of fatigue, but I spent a good 100 miles wondering why we did not see any overnight truck peletons in operation as a response to higher diesel prices.

If we assume constant speeds on a level surface (yeah, I know it is the PA Turnpike on the mountain route) an engine has to create enough force to counteract the work of two elements.  The first is rolling friction which is a function of weight and the coefficient of friction between the road and the tires.  The second is air resistance which is a function of frontal surface area, shape and speed.  A more fuel efficient car of a given weight does something to minimize one or both sources of friction (as well as mechanical friction and heat production). 

A peleton in bicycle racing is a highly organized cooperative structure of competing riders.  Each rider in a pack takes a short turn leading the pack while everyone else tucks in tight behind each other.  This formation allows the followers to 'free' ride against 30% to 40% less air resistance as the lead rider breaks the wall of air and creates a slip-stream where the resistance is far less.  After a short period of time, the current leader then breaks formation and heads to the rear to recover and benefit from the next person breaking the wind.  This formation at the Tour de France can go on for 100 miles as everyone conserves net energy compared to riding alone.  The same concept is used in NASCAR and Indy racing to conserve fuel.

When we were driving on Monday night, it was common to see small convoys of two or three trucks traveling at intervals of 80 to 100 feet where there was some slipstreaming and drafting occurring.  However there were no instances of turn sharing nor any very large formations.  I find this odd.

Truckers' incomes are highly sensitive to fuel prices, and if a trucker can find a way to be 5% more efficient on a 1,500 mile run, that is a significant cost savings when diesel is at $4.50/gallon.  It would be logical for cooperative efforts of non-co-workers to occur on the highway as it is a positive sum game.  Cooperation allows all involved players to save on fuel costs.  I wonder why this is not happening especially as there are large coordination and information sharing systems available to truckers including the ubiquitous CB radio, so setting up a small peleton of half a dozen trucks for the Pittsburgh to Philly run should not be difficult even if it improvised on the Turnpike itself?  What is the blocking factor here?

May 18, 2008

GED Dad out of jail

By Libby

Following up on my earlier post, Mr. Gergen has been granted at least a temporary reprieve by the courts but he's not quite a free man yet.

But Gegner, who landed in jail May 7 for failing to ensure his daughter attended school, risks serving another 171 days unless his daughter attends pre-college mathematics classes at Miami University’s Hamilton campus. Gegner must return to court July 16. He will go back to jail that day unless Brittany attends the classes as arranged, Niehaus ruled.

The reprieve means Gegner will keep the data-entry job he has held for 14 years at Christ Hospital and can go back to parenting another daughter, 16, who is an honor-roll student at Fairfield High School. [...]

The teen has said it's not fair that her father was punished for her behavior. But the law in Ohio is clear, parents can be held legally responsible for truant children. [...]

Usually stoic on the bench, Niehaus got choked up as he spoke about why truancy is a big deal. Children who don’t get educations typically end up with low-paying jobs, committing crimes or relying on public assistance, he said.

I assume then the honorable judge is out there advocating for sentencing reform so communities can spend money on schools instead of pouring money into prisons filled with non-violent offenders who fell victim to the war on some drugs. And as I noted earlier, he certainly hasn't demonstrated the same level of concern about teens who get caught in sexual misconduct.

I'm sure the Ohio law, which was amended in 2000, was well intentioned but it's difficult to feel much sympathy for the judge, who has endured some very bad press, when he failed to take any mitigating circumstances into account. I find it especially interesting that the other daughter, who presumably actually lives with him, is an honor student. Doesn't exactly make the case for irresponsible parenting but makes a pretty good one for over-zealous ruling from the bench. [via Jules]

May 13, 2008

Man jailed for daughter's GED failure

By Libby

Read this and be glad you're not the parent of problem teenager in Ohio. Judge David Niehaus of Butler County Juvenile Court sentenced Brian Gegner to six months in jail because his 19 year daughter Brittany has been unable to pass the math portion of the GED test. Even more astounding, although Gegner has legal custody of the daughter, she has been living with her birth mother since she herself gave birth to a child at the age of 17.

The court claims jurisdiction over the case because it began when the girl was 16 years old when she came before the bench on account of her truancy problems. Ironically, she ended up in the court system because Mr. Gergen and his second wife sought help from the authorities in trying to control the child.

Gergen's sister adds some context to the story. Gergen never married Brittany's mother and sought custody of the girl and her brother when they were toddlers. She has a history of acting out in her teen years and after she gave birth, she pleaded to be allowed to move in with her birth mom, which she did along with her baby and the baby's father. Both the daughter and birth mother agree that Gergen should not be the one held responsible for her failure to pass the test. Again, it is the only the math portion of the GED she has failed. She successfully passed the other subjects and is still trying to pass the math portion.

As for the judge, a Republican who was elected to the bench, he has an interesting record of decisions. He apparently is more offended by truant schoolgirls than he is by teenage rapists.

Two 15-year-old boys have been sentenced to a rehabilitation center for the rape of a third boy on a school bus. The Butler County Juvenile Court Judge originally gave each of the boys a one-year sentence -- one boy for rape and the other for complicity to rape.

David Niehaus then suspended the sentences in favor of a rehabilitation program in Hamilton, north of Cincinnati. The judge warned them that if they aren't successful in rehabilitation they could be put behind bars. When the boys finish the program Niehaus will decide whether they should be classified as sexual offenders.

And I couldn't find the final disposition on this case of child molestation but he did let the perpetrator plead down.

A teenage boy has pleaded guilty to reduced sex charges involving two younger boys he was babysitting in Butler County. The baby sitter, now 16, pleaded guilty to six counts of gross sexual imposition. He had originally been charged with rape of two boys who were ages 9 and 11 at the time of the alleged crimes. Judge David Niehaus set sentencing for 9 a.m. April 11 in Butler County Juvenile Court. The teen was released on electronic monitoring awaiting sentencing.

However, he apparently believes in throwing the book at parents.

A judge ordered jail time for a man and woman convicted of attempted assault for tying the woman's 12-year-old son to a lawn chair with duct tape. Butler County Juvenile Court Judge David Niehaus sentenced David Edester, 41, to 20 days in jail for confining his stepson to the chair for 2 1/2 hours May 5. The boy suffered a severe sunburn, police said.

That's not to condone the parent's choice of punishment but considering his decision here that caused the death of an infant, one might suggest he review his approach to penalites.

Tiffany died Sept. 30, 1986, from gangrene when the wounds she suffered from continuous beatings became infected. She had been living with her father for 27 days. Butler County Children Services had taken the child away from Jackson alleging poor living conditions.

Butler County Juvenile Court Judge David Niehaus placed Tiffany with Hubbard even though a psychologist’s report cautioned against it, and despite Hubbard’s juvenile conviction at 17 for molesting a 7-year-old.

Ironically he's been named Judge of the Year at least twice. If this is the best Ohio has got, I'd hate to see what the worst are like. [h/t Paul Wright]

May 09, 2008

An issue of hair raising importance

Brenda_starr_3

(By Libby ) While everyone else is busy issuing post-mortems on the Democratic primary, following the standards set by our superior legacy media, I'm turning my attention to questions of greater import, namely what do we call Chris "Tweety" Matthews now that he colored his hair?

When I saw the change, my first thought was of the red-headed heroine of the comic strips, Ace Reporter Brenda Starr. The hair color works and after all she was famous for loving manly men, just like our Tweety. But I rejected that choice for the obvious reason. She was a real reporter who went out on the streets looking for stories. The hair works, but the personna doesn't.

I'm not the only one who is pondering this question and I have to agree with Avedon that Gossamer isn't working for me. Too esoteric and not a wide enough historic context. Frankly I don't know who that character is and I suspect I'm not the only one. I think we need a more recognizable reference.

Elmo I mean giving up the Tweety nickname is traumatic enough and many are resisting the change altogether. I was thinking we need a similarly warm and fuzzy character if we're going to give up our beloved Tweety reference. I flirted briefly with Clifford. In keeping with the original logic behind the Tweety nickname, he does have a big red head but the name is so generic that it wouldn't be instantly recognizable. Then it struck me. Elmo. I think he's perfect. He even bears a resemblence to Matthews, don't you think? [graphics credits]

May 08, 2008

Micro-local mixed cluster development....

By Fester

The Angry Drunk Bureaucrat is looking at the expansion plans of Point Park University in Pittsburgh and is raising a very interesting point --- what is the role of non-research universities on regional economic development.  We know from the scores of scores of small college towns that liberal arts universities can and often do serve as local economic anchors as they generate both local and regional export work of education.  The Amherst area in Massachusetts is a super-cluster of regional liberal arts colleges which have a significant impact on the Berkshire regional economy [aided massively by UMass down the street...]

I opened my media kit from Point Park University to see what the architectural wizards over at WTW Architects came up with. Over all, it's not a bad plan for an "academic village" which includes the acquisition of the existing YMCA building, acquisition of several more properties along Forbes Avenue (across the street from the Piatt development), and a mess of public improvements to the streets, sidewalks, and trees.
The big question, of course, is what this all means to the future of Downtown....

Setting the built environment aside, however, there is the proposition that Universities can be economic development engines. This seems more true, however, for schools like Pitt and CMU that can churn out spinoffs in Biotech and IT, rather than PPU which can churn out Liberal Arts majors.

Not that there's anything wrong with Liberal Arts majors -- some of my favorite baristas have degrees in Native American Literature or Political Philosophy -- but can a horde of conservatory and media studies students be a motor for economic development downtown? Well, surely for necessities, amenities and some residential, but can the University attract industrial clusters that build on regional assets and help to generate sustainable job growth? I honestly don't know the answer to that question.

I'm a bit invested in the idea of increasing the concentration of students in a dense downtown setting for a couple of reasons, most importantly I did some research and consulting on this topic in 2002/2003. A higher density of students downtown will have significant local effects that the Angry Drunk Bureaucrat has identified including increased demand for basic amenities and significantly increased foot traffic and informal street level surveillance of a larger segment of downtown.  That section of downtown would go from being a twelve hour neighborhood (7:00 AM to 7:00 PM) to an eighteen hour neighborhood with the attendant increases of restaurants, bars, and laundrymats serving students.

Now is this relevant or is this just a redistribution of students who would, no matter what, attend PPU or the Art Institute but live elsewhere, most likely on the Southside?  Here is where it gets tricky.

A significant public policy assumption has been that Pittsburgh needs a vibrant 18 to 24 hour a day downtown to be a vibrant and dynamic city for a variety of reasons. If you believe that a liveable downtown ex arguemendo is a necessity for a vital region due to density and agglomeration economic concerns then we start to get into tipping point population profiles.  For instance another local collection of neighborhoods, the Hill District, has a population of roughly 9,000 individuals and no full service grocery store.  I know that major chains don't want to go into the Hill because they either have nearby stores or the population is just not large enough to support the costs.  The same dynamic is occurring in downtown --- a small but increasing population which is not large enough to support all the amenities being demanded.  An addition of several hundred to several thousand students living downtown moves the local population much closer to another viable level of amenity provision. 

This is all well and good for local amenity and quality of life issues, but is a vibrant downtown a necessity for significant economic growth to occur?  I don't think so; I think it is a coincident or lagging indicator of successful growth and innovation.  So as a local strategy, I think this is a great plan.  I work downtown and I think my third of the day will be improved as Point Park expands, but as a regional strategy this is a wash unless Point Park becomes a world class university that imports students ( and more importantly their money) from a much wider net than the Pittsburgh MSA. 

May 02, 2008

The upside of the high price of gas

By Libby

As far as I'm concerned this is welcome news. I'll probably get hate mail for admitting this, but I loathe SUVs and Hummers and all the other ridiculous giant vehicles that became the status symbol of the last decade or so.

DETROIT — Soaring gas prices have turned the steady migration by Americans to smaller cars into a stampede.

In what industry analysts are calling a first, about one in five vehicles sold in the United States was a compact or subcompact car during April, based on monthly sales data released Thursday. Almost a decade ago, when sport utility vehicles were at their peak of popularity, only one in every eight vehicles sold was a small car.

The switch to smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles has been building in recent years, but has accelerated recently with the advent of $3.50-a-gallon gas. At the same time, sales of pickup trucks and large sport utility vehicles have dropped sharply.

Can't drop sharply enough for me. I think these gas guzzling behemoths are as responsible for rising gas prices as anything else and I have no sympathy for those who are now crying about paying over a hundred bucks to fill these sorry excuses for transportation. And yes, I've heard all the arguments about needing the room but that's just BS.

Here in the McCompound, just looking from my deck I counted a dozen large SUVs and a Hummer. I've yet to see anyone carry anything more in them than a couple of kids and few bags of groceries. I understand that some families do need a roomy car but I don't see that SUVs deliver all that much room for the amount they take up on the road and they're a hazard.

You can't see around them on the highway. You can't see past them when you're backing out of a parking space and they take up a huge amount of room in the parking lots. If you find two parked badly, which they often are, with a space in between, you can't even always fit a little Toyota like mine in between.

My old Subaru wagon could turn on a dime and held twice as much cargo as any SUV I've ever seen. Granted you didn't have quite the same leg room but in the dark ages when I was young, a standard American made station wagon held pretty much the same amount of luggage or whatever and were perfectly comfortable and didn't block visibility because they didn't feel the need to be built two feet higher than every other car and they were less likely to turn over than an SUV. Not to mention, they didn't use nearly as much fuel. I can't but think that in all the years these monsters were popular, we used up a lot more gas than was necessary for the function they filled.

I can live with mini-vans and even the smaller SUVs if someone has a real need to go off road but anything that drives these huge follies off the road, is fine with me.

May 01, 2008

D.C. Madam "Commits Suicide"

By Cernig

This one is going to spawn all kinds of conspiracy theories.

Police say a woman they believe to be convicted Washington escort service operator Deborah Jeane Palfrey has committed suicide.

Police in Tarpon Springs, Florida say the body was found in a shed near Palfrey's mother's home Thursday morning. There was a suicide note, but police did not disclose its contents.

Palfrey was convicted April 15 by a federal jury of running a prostitution service that catered to members of Washington's political elite.

Palfrey was, of course, the infamous D.C. Madam. Her wikipedia entry reads, in part:

Palfrey appeared on ABC's 20/20 as part of an investigative report on 4 May 2007.[4] In combination with Palfrey's statement that she has 10,000 to 15,000 phone numbers of clients, this has caused several clients' lawyers to contact Palfrey to see whether accommodations could be made to keep their identities private.[5] Ultimately, ABC News, after going through what was described as "46 lbs" [21 kg] of phone records, decided that none of the potential clients was sufficiently "newsworthy" to bother mentioning.[6]

The scandal has led to the resignation of Ambassador Randall L. Tobias from his State Department position and as the Administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development. Also named was Washington Times columnist Harlan Ullman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

On July 9th, 2007 Palfrey released the supposed entirety of her phone records for public viewing and download on the Internet in TIFF format, though days prior to this, her civil attorney Montgomery Blair Sibley had dispatched 54 CD-ROM copies to researchers, activists, and journalists. Senator David Vitter (R-LA) acknowledged on the night of July 9th that he had been a customer of Palfrey's escort service.

An ambassador, a think-tank columnist and a Senator, not newsworthy? Her apparent suicide is, I guarantee, going to spark new interest in the phone record TIFF archive and lead to speculation that it isn't complete- that there were larger revelations in the woodwork - and that there may have been dirty tricks involved. Such speculation is a part of human nature.

April 28, 2008

Stop that pig thief!

By Libby

Don't let the disguise fool you, I think Roger Waters stole our pig. On the bright side, it appears he wasn't intending to hold him for ransom and he let him go, so I suppose he'll just fly back home here where he belongs.

Greenpeace Takes Over Czech Missile Defense Site

By Cernig

I needed a cheer-up this morning.

Prague - Greenpeace activists Monday took over the site in a military zone south-west of Prague where the United States would like to place its missile-defence radar, the group said. About 20 activists scaled the hill without a permit to enter the Brdy military zone in protest of US plans to erect a radar base there, spokeswoman Lenka Borakova said. "Erecting bases for the US missile shield in central Europe will lead to instability," she said. Speaking by telephone from the spot, she said five Greenpeace climbers set up camp in treetops, hanging a 15-by-15-metre target- shaped banner there.

The military asked the protesters to leave the site by 2 pm (1200 GMT). "We do not intend to obey," the activist said. The Czech Defence Ministry declined to disclose whether it plans to have the activists removed from the site. "All options are open. It depends on the attitude of the trespassers," ministry spokesman Andrej Cirtek said. The activists committed a misdemeanour punishable by a fine by staging a political protest on military premises. Polls have repeatedly shown that more than six out of 10 Czechs oppose hosting the US facility.

In the bad old days of communism, of course, such a protest would have been impossible. Freedom cuts both ways.

April 25, 2008

Scottish Fuel Crisis

By Cernig

Following on from Fester's post yesterday on the strike at Grangemouth refinery complex in Scotland, the strike hasn't even begun yet and Scotland is out of fuel.

I've just spoken to my father, who says that there's only one filling station in the whole county of Fife still with fuel this evening. Every garage in Prime Minister Brown's home constituency is dry. Panic buying, with people filling up their vehicles and every container they could, has depleted even deisel stocks far faster than expected. On the local news last night, footage was shown of tankers filing up to take fuel abroad (including to the U.S.) and today public opinion is strongly of the view that Scotland should be keeping what little fuel it has.

The refinery's shutdown has also already prompted the shutdown of a pipeline from the North Sea oilfields and around 65 oil rigs. Operators had said they would hold off until at least saturday but have acted earlier. There are worries that too long a lay-off could mean massive re-start and repair bills for offshore infrastructure, further escalating prices. Oil is now at $119 a barrel.

April 24, 2008

Nominate me! Nominate me!

by Stacie

As I read Lanny Davis' Top 10 Reasons Why The Process The Democrats Use Is Insufficient Because Hillary Can't Win It (h/t Cole, see below), I thought exactly what I always think when a candidate, campaign, or party goes entirely off the deep end with the burning, burning stupid. I thought: Nominate Me!

So here's my Top 10 List of Undisputed Facts Showing Barack Obama's Weakness Against Me In The Primary Race.

10. He's beaten me in exactly zero head-to-head matchups so far this year.
9. My delegates are prettier.
8. White people don't like him. Haven't you heard? He's black.
7. I have truly amazing hair. Barack, though not balding as far as I can tell, has very little of the stuff. Not sure about body hair, though I'm proud to say that what little I have is also awesome.
6. No one's ever accused me of giving "whoop-de-doo speeches." That would hurt my feelings.
5. No Rezco scandal here. Like I could get a guy like that return my phone calls.
4. Barack Obama said that some small town Americans are bitter, and to prove this is false, the Clinton campaign now insists that those same people will never forgive such a use of language and wouldn't vote for the speaker. Dude, I think small-town Americans are frigging rock stars who never do anything out of bitterness or wrong-headedness. I'm just in a city because I like to make money, but I certainly don't think rural folks with their limited opportunities are bitter. That's just silly.
3. Just because he's like 1600 delegates ahead of me doesn't mean I can't pull it out.
2. I met a superdelegate once. I believe I have an inside track there.
1. Obama outspent me by exactly every penny he spent in the state of Pennsylvania, and I didn't die. I'm not dead. I'm still alive enough to write this list. Clearly he's a weak candidate.

April 21, 2008

Food Shortages Hitting US Stores?

By Cernig

Via Raw Story, I see the New York Sun has a rather sensationalised story about food rationing coming to America. It's not that bad - yet. But the story does have enough anecdotal evidence of localised shortages that suggest the longer-term trend could be quite worrying. In some California outlets, shoppers are being limited to one large bag of rice as demand outstrips supply, whereas on the East coast there are spot shortages in oil and flour.

What is true, however, is that there are major shortages elsewhere in the world right now:

Spiking food prices have led to riots in recent weeks in Haiti, Indonesia, and several African nations. India recently banned export of all but the highest quality rice, and Vietnam blocked the signing of a new contract for foreign rice sales.

The crunch point will be the failure or success of the American harvest. America is still indeed the breadbasket of the world but if the U.S. harvest comes in under par then a lot of people worldwide are going to starve as food prices skyrocket. You still won't see actual rationing in the U.S. although higher prices will amount to the same thing for poorer folks but across the Third World there will be widespread famine - and the destabilising migrations, wars and disease that always come with such a famine.

Meritocracy, blogging and network dependencies

By Fester

AJ at Americablog earlier in the week raised a very good point on the difficulties of a new blogger breaking out of the long tail and moving up the steep slope of the power curve of audience distribution to get to a point where a decent audience is routinely reading a blog and influence is being routinely seen. 

There is, of course, a lot about blogging that levels the playing field; if a writer chooses, he or she can be anonymous -- no labels, no boxes -- and anybody can set up a site, so the barriers to entry are relatively minimal. But to be successful, to have your voice heard, is another story.

The most obvious advantage is simply timing -- most of the high-traffic sites have been around for a long time. I don't think readership is inelastic or zero sum, but it's clearly much harder to build an audience now than it might have been even a few years ago. Further, all of the most popular liberal blogs have writers who are, for various reasons, able to spend a lot of time doing this.

Another big factor, as with everything in life, is personal relationships. Some of that is related to finances too (have enough money to go to conferences? to travel to meetings and events?) and some is just random connections, but it matters what email lists you're on, who you can get to link to your stuff, and who has you on their RSS feed. Some of that is about the writing, and some of it isn't.

There is a lot of truth to this analysis.  Blogging audiences are not evenly distributed.  Instead they are highly concentrated at the top hundred, and then the top several thousand blogs, and rapidly drop down into the double digits per day.  I know, my old blog, Fester's Place, maxed out at around 150 hits per day, and routinely averaged seventy or eighty hits per day.  The blogging marketplace is extraordinarily competetive with a brutal structure of audience clustering in which first niche mover advantage is massive.  The progresive national electoral activism and coordination spacee has been pretty much occupied by the major SCOOP sites (Daily Kos, MyDD, OpenLeft etc.), wonky interconnecters have long standing incumbents, single issue advocacy have their long term, entrenched segment leaders etc.

And these sites are reasonably adaptive to their audience's moods as shown by the excellent work done by FireDogLake and Glenn Greenwald on FISA, the Edwards to Obama migration of Daily Kos, the pro-Clinton refuge of MyDD and the fiscal policy wonkery connecting and zeitgeist naming of Atrios.  It is very tough to compete against market leaders where  demand slope is so steep.  Everyone goes to Kos because everyone else is there if you are interest in Obama.  Everyone goes to Calculated Risk if you are interested in housing and financial market seizures, and everyone goes to Atrios to laugh about Big Shitpile after another  Friedman Unit of containment. 

So if you want to build a widely read blog, taking on the entrenched incumbents in their market niche is not a good idea.  Nothing personal, but the advantages of being the first mover to a particular space and narrative are immense.  Instead, there are a set of choices to be made.  And this set of choices is one of the reasons that we as a group have assembled as the Newshoggers... We were too small individually despite producing what we perceive to be very good to excellent content to break through the embedded network resistance.  However, initially combining four writers with distinct voices and interests, and our individual talents allowed us to move to a slightly different niche and fill it well.  As we added Eric and Kat, we are building on our strengths and our perspective on foreign policy, Iraq, economics and Democratic and liberal politics (hopefully when they coincide, wryly when they don't). 

Each one of us does not have ten hours a day to write, but most days at least two of us have two hours to write.  I'm not the best marketing person, but Cernig is an excellent networker as well as a comprehensive analytical thinker.  My strength is high end analysis and ad management.  Stacie has a fascinating pulse on the zeitgeist while Libby is exceptionally talented at finding a viewpoint that is guaranteed to provoke thoughtful reaction as Eric is our chief catherdologist, and Kat is an extraordinary researcher who has provided dozens of story leads for me.  Individually, these strengths are counterbalanced by our respective weaknesses but as a strengths based team, our weaknesses are minimized. 

Ever then, the top end blog audience share market is intense.  We normally average between 1,000 and 1,250 hits per day which is enough for (bad) beer money.  Instead we have developed an alternative metric of success and that is influence.  We are highly influential for or despite our size.  Until the switchover from blogspot, we were in the top 5000 to 6000 on Technorait, with our   being blogs with ten to twenty times our traffic.  On the Memeorandum leaderboard flirt with the top 100 and compete with blogs of thirty to fifty times our traffic and on BlogBurst, we improved this quarter to the 51st most cited blog from the 61st position last quarter.  Our peers are national think tanks and web-magazines ( as well as sex advice columnists and hockey sites this quarter). 

I don't think I have quadrupled my abilities as a writer and analyst in the past year.  I have a massive amount of respect for my colleagues here, but I don't think they have seen that type of growth either; instead we have grown from a high base of quality, but we have regamed the system to achieve our goals.  Four, and then six small bloggers/information junkies who were fighting the low end of the audience distribution power curve teamed up and built on each of our strengths to rocket past other sites and writers as we built on multiple years of relationship building and a good bit of luck on subject matter interests intersecting with reality.  Even then, we are an influential site, but not a highly trafficked site.  The network dependencies of creating a blog that could get 250,000 hits per day, or 75,000 hits per day that does not traffic in porn, cats with Hitler moustaches are very high and there is very little space to exploit any more.

So meritocracy still exists in the blogosphere, but the metrics where merit is most easily evaluated are no longer in high traffic, but in secondary measures such as influence where early adapters and first movers are more likely to experiment with new sites. 

April 19, 2008

Ancient cities without agriculture

By Fester

Civilization is the story of cities and urbanization.  The dominant story is that cities arose from agriculture first and foremost as that created a surplus of locally available and dependable calories.  This increase in accessible energy density allowed for a specialization of labor to occur and the first cities rose as administrative, trading, governmental/religious and depot centers.  One of the major dissenters to the agricultural primacy argument has been Jane Jacobs as she looked at the economies of cities and rural areas and postulated in The Economy of Cities that pre-agricultural cities or at least dense urban(ish) settlements were a neccessary precursor for agriculture to occur. 

Via the Mahatma X Files, a little bit of evidence that supports the pre-agricultural urban revolution has been found in Turkey:

Behind him are the first folds of the Anatolian plateau. Ahead, the Mesopotamian plain, like a dust-colored sea, stretches south hundreds of miles to Baghdad and beyond. The stone circles of Gobekli Tepe are just in front, hidden under the brow of the hill.

Compared to Stonehenge, Britain's most famous prehistoric site, they are humble affairs. None of the circles excavated (four out of an estimated 20) are more than 30 meters across. What makes the discovery remarkable are the carvings of boars, foxes, lions, birds, snakes and scorpions, and their age. Dated at around 9,500 BC, these stones are 5,500 years older than the first cities of Mesopotamia, and 7,000 years older than Stonehenge.

Never mind circular patterns or the stone-etchings, the people who erected this site did not even have pottery or cultivate wheat. They lived in villages. But they were hunters, not farmers.

"Everybody used to think only complex, hierarchical civilizations could build such monumental sites, and that they only came about with the invention of agriculture", says Ian Hodder, a Stanford University Professor of Anthropology, who, since 1993, has directed digs at Catalhoyuk, Turkey's most famous Neolithic site. "Gobekli changes everything. It's elaborate, it's complex and it is pre-agricultural. That fact alone makes the site one of the most important archaeological finds in a very long time."

COOL!!!!

Movie Recommendation

By Fester:

Last night we were both working late and needed to have a relaxing and easy evening, so my wife and I went to see 'Forgetting Sarah Marshall' and I must highly recommend this movie as it produces a consistent cacophony of deep belly laughs, intellectual chuckles, rueful sighs and a sore torso the next morning.  The humor ranges from simple visual gags to elaborate multiple scene set-ups with multiple punch points to excellent but disturbing physical humor including unnatural acts with oversized chess pieces.  I don't recommend movies that often, but if you are looking for two hours of laughter, this movie will easily provide that.

April 18, 2008

And one more thing

by Stacie

Before I get back to it -- this isn't some kind of mindless Obama-mania that has gripped me. Althou