Lack of Change = Lack of Enthusiasm

Commentary By Ron Beasley

As Dave noted the other day Self-preservation is not a Democratic instinct.  In the comments section of that post I wrote the following:

People voted for the Democrats and Obama for change and they have gotten damn little of it. The danger in 2010 is that millions will simply stay home and only the Beck/Palin cultists will show up at the polls. This is not only dangerous for the Democrats but the Republicans and the country as a whole.

At this point I will have a difficult time dragging myself to the polls to vote for a Democrat in 2010 and according to the latest Research 2000 poll I'm not alone.  While there has been some deterioration the Democrats still have a big lead on the Republicans:

The Democrats still lead the Republicans by double digits.  But now the bad news - enthusiasm.  The answer to this question says it all:

QUESTION: In the 2010 Congressional elections will you definitely vote, probably vote, not likely vote, or definitely will not vote?

The Republican base is fired up the Democratic base is ready to stay home.

The results were, to put it mildly, shocking:

Voter Intensity: Definitely + Probably Voting/Not Likely + Not Voting

Republican Voters: 81/14
Independent Voters: 65/23
DEMOCRATIC VOTERS: 56/40

Two in five Democratic voters either consider themselves unlikely to vote at this point in time, or have already made the firm decision to remove themselves from the 2010 electorate pool. Indeed, Democrats were three times more likely to say that they will "definitely not vote" in 2010 than are Republicans.

This enormous enthusiasm gap, as well as some polling analysis done by PPP (and analyzed well here by Nate Silver), seems to make passing legitimate health care reform an absolute political necessity for Democrats. This polling data certainly should be something for Congressional leadership to consider, as they move along the legislative path.

I think health care is only part of the problem and I still think a bad health care bill - which is all we have seen so far - will hurt the Dems as much if not more than no bill at all.  The Obama administration's economic policy has concentrated on Wall Street not main street and by November of 2010 Obama and the Democrats will own the economy.  And of course we can't forget the dual quagmires of Iraq and Afghanistan.  A year form now Obama and the Democrats will own those too - especially the grave yard of empires, Afghanistan.  If the teabaggers win in 2010 they will have Obama and the Democrats to thank for their victory.

Comments

[Curmudgeon]

The Democrats are between a rock and a hard place. Pissing off the base might mean losing one election. Pissing off corporate America by enacting real reform on Wall Street and in health care would wipe out the party for good.

Enacting real reform would mean going back on implicit promises given by the Democratic party when they accepted Wall Street and health insurance industry campaign cash. Proving an unreliable partner for business would mean the end of all corporate funding for the Democratic party. No one of consequence will fund a party that won't deliver what it's been paid to provide.

[fledermaus]

at least the impeachment hearings should provide some cheap entertainment

[Curmudgeon]

Absolutely. If the GOP gets a House majority under Obama the very serious people will start asking very serious questions about if it is legal to be president while black.