Altmire wants to lose in 2010
By Dave Anderson:
Jason Altmire (D-PA) wants to lose his seat next year. That is about the only thing that makes sense from his announcement that the Democrats should take further steps to de-motivate the Democratic base by continuing to not deliver on promised policy changes that Democrats, him included, ran on successfully in 2006 and 2008.
From the Hill:
Altmire thinks that base excitement is what will propel Republicans to wins this afternoon. And that the proper response to that analysis is to take actions to further unite and empower the Republican base while depressing the Democratic base. This is basically the path that Craig Deeds tried to take in the Virginia Governor's race that he is projected to get crushed in. He took Altmire's implied advice of not advocating for general Democratic platform planks and creating seperation between him and the most popular and notable Democrat in the country. And he is getting crushed because his base has decided to not give a fuck. Public Policy Polling has two very interesting snippets of analysis that illustrate this claim:
From 11/2/09:
From 10/26/09
Deeds policy pronouncements basically told the Democratic base to not care who won or lost. Deeds indicated that he might push for Virginia to opt-out of any public option healthcare plan. That is a generic issue Republican talking point in a safe seat, not the statement of a Democrat who needed to rally his base that is already disappointed that we are debating triggers v. opt-in v. opt-out instead of some variant of Medicare-E or single-payer.
I door knocked in Altmire's district in 2006 in support of state candidates and without absolutely no coordination with the Altmire or any federal campaign (just had to get that out there for legal reasons.) I live fifteen minutes south of the district. I routinely work in that district. I know some of the Democratic activists in that district. I have a decent feel for at least the core Democratic areas of the district. For Altmire to win re-election in 2010 while running against a generic Republican instead of Melissa Hart who had become too closely associated with Santorum and high personal negatives combined with laziness in 2006, he needs to have 95% Democratic unity and Democrats turning out at a higher rate than Republicans plus he needs to win independents 60:40 and pick-off some moderate(ish) Republicans. Altmire's expressed desire to slow things down on healthcare means the Democrats in his district will turn out at a rate no higher than and most likely significantly lower than already motivated Republicans. And that means he loses in 2010 to a generic Republican challenger.
Jason Altmire (D-PA) wants to lose his seat next year. That is about the only thing that makes sense from his announcement that the Democrats should take further steps to de-motivate the Democratic base by continuing to not deliver on promised policy changes that Democrats, him included, ran on successfully in 2006 and 2008.
From the Hill:
Rep. Jason Altmire (D-Pa.) argued that an election night rebuke for Democratic candidates across the nation could lead some in the party to rethink their plans on healthcare reform and other issues.
“It looks as though the anger that has been boiling up the last couple of months is going to lead to a pretty high turnout from Republicans and from people who are concerned about increased spending,” Altmire said Monday evening during an appearance on Fox Business Network.
“And I do think that if the results show Republicans have a pretty good night, that probably is going to lead some Democrats to think that, going into next year, we need to take a second look at the way that we’ve done a lot of bills we’ve addressed up to this point,” the Pennsylvania congressman added.
Altmire thinks that base excitement is what will propel Republicans to wins this afternoon. And that the proper response to that analysis is to take actions to further unite and empower the Republican base while depressing the Democratic base. This is basically the path that Craig Deeds tried to take in the Virginia Governor's race that he is projected to get crushed in. He took Altmire's implied advice of not advocating for general Democratic platform planks and creating seperation between him and the most popular and notable Democrat in the country. And he is getting crushed because his base has decided to not give a fuck. Public Policy Polling has two very interesting snippets of analysis that illustrate this claim:
From 11/2/09:
Beyond that the same themes that have shown throughout the general election show up in the last survey. 61% of McDonnell's voters are 'very excited' to vote on Tuesday while just 14% are 'not very excited.' For Deeds' supporters on the other hand 36% are 'not very excited about casting their ballots and just 31% are 'very excited.' That enthusiasm gap has existed for months now and made a Deeds comeback all but impossible
From 10/26/09
One thing I find interesting looking back over our last four polls is that the percentage of likely voters who are Democrats has fallen every time. This is the first race we've polled regularly in the last few years where I've noticed this happening- this is also the first race we've polled regularly in the last few years that's so lopsided. Does anyone know if it's normal for supporters of a particular candidate to finally just decide they're not going to vote if they think he's going to lose? The more inevitable Deeds' loss has seemed the fewer Democrats we've found planning to vote.
Deeds policy pronouncements basically told the Democratic base to not care who won or lost. Deeds indicated that he might push for Virginia to opt-out of any public option healthcare plan. That is a generic issue Republican talking point in a safe seat, not the statement of a Democrat who needed to rally his base that is already disappointed that we are debating triggers v. opt-in v. opt-out instead of some variant of Medicare-E or single-payer.
I door knocked in Altmire's district in 2006 in support of state candidates and without absolutely no coordination with the Altmire or any federal campaign (just had to get that out there for legal reasons.) I live fifteen minutes south of the district. I routinely work in that district. I know some of the Democratic activists in that district. I have a decent feel for at least the core Democratic areas of the district. For Altmire to win re-election in 2010 while running against a generic Republican instead of Melissa Hart who had become too closely associated with Santorum and high personal negatives combined with laziness in 2006, he needs to have 95% Democratic unity and Democrats turning out at a higher rate than Republicans plus he needs to win independents 60:40 and pick-off some moderate(ish) Republicans. Altmire's expressed desire to slow things down on healthcare means the Democrats in his district will turn out at a rate no higher than and most likely significantly lower than already motivated Republicans. And that means he loses in 2010 to a generic Republican challenger.
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