China, Russia, India Send Signal To U.S. On Afghanistan

By Steve Hynd

The Pakistani paper Dawn has an interesting report from a press conference in Bangalore, India:

The foreign ministers of Russia, China and India said on Tuesday that the world must remain engaged in Afghanistan, with Moscow seeking a greater role for regional powers in stabilising the war-torn country.

The appeal by the three big powers comes at a time when public support for the war in Afghanistan is fading in Western countries, and just as the United States is debating whether to send more troops to arrest a growing Taliban insurgency.

‘The ministers emphasised the necessity of the international community maintaining its commitment to render assistance to the government and people of Afghanistan in ensuring security and development...,’ the foreign ministers said in a statement following their meeting in the southern Indian city of Bangalore.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters that the three countries were coordinating their efforts to restore stability to Afghanistan and ‘counter terrorism and drug trafficking’.

‘We can not stand aloof and impartial on what’s going on in the friendly neighboring countries and adjacent countries too,’ Lavrov said.

Analysts said India, China and Russia, were trying to send a signal that each had a stake in Afghanistan and that the United States couldn’t continue to pursue a unilateral path.

I wonder if this is an early move in something I've speculated about before: a possible move to suggest replacing the US-led coalition in Afghanistan with a Chinese-led one. Russia, for obvious reasons, would probably want to sit on the sidelines and call plays rather than get physically involved. But if China and India are considering burying their geopolitical hatchet to co-operate in Afghanistan, where they are the first and second trading partners respectively, then with China having a hold of all the important economic and military levers in Pakistan to force the Pakistani military to go along, the whole scheme floated by the deputy general of the China Council for National Security Policy Studies, Li Qinggong becomes much more possible politically.

Comments

[Ron Beasley]

The Russians, Chinese and Indians have the most to fear from the Taliban, much more than the US or Europe. It only makes sense that if they thought the West was about to cut and run.

[John Ballard]

I was thinking about that very possibility two days ago. An international effort, even with Russian involvement, would be completely realistic considering the dangers posed to all of the major players from the spread of a Taliban/Qaeda model. I see no way a sufficient number of outsiders will ever succeed in nation-building, security or cultivating crops other than poppies. "Doing it right" will require hundreds of thousands, including civilians, infrastructure and support activities. (Imagine the translation challenges of a coalition including Mandarin, Hindi and Russian.)

[Cheryl Rofer]

No way can the coalition be Chinese-led. India will go crazy!

But the idea of a regional effort is a good one. I may work up a post on it.