Vietnam -Afghanistan, LBJ - Obama

Commentary By Ron Beasley

Lindsey Graham, Joe Lieberman and John McCain have an editorial in the WSJ where they continue to  beat the drums of war but as Steve suggested below not everyone believes the effort can be successful and that there may be a change in the AF/PAK strategy.

Petraeus and McChrystal still want more troops for nation-building in Afghanistan, but there are signs that the Very Serious People are about to change horses midstream again and advocate an Iraq-style papering over the cracks before declaring victory and rushing for the exits. It has become obvious that neither the public nor many Democratic lawmakers support escalation of the eight year occupation, with only the neocons seriously supporting doubling down on an American decades-long presence. So the new plan is to instead concentrate on a rapid increase of Afghan security forces - both police and army - followed by withdrawal.

Now as Steve points out this "papering over the cracks strategy" is unacceptable for many reasons.  It is an admission that we can't be successful .  Now we can't know what's being said in the oval office today but we do know what was being said there almost 45 years ago.  The following are from the Johnson tapes as found in Reaching For Glory by Michael Beschloss.

Now we're off to bombing these people. We're over that hurdle. I don't think anything is going to be as bad as losing, and I don't see any way of winning.

~LBJ to ROBERT MCNAMARA, February 26, 1965

.............

It's going to be difficult/or us to... prosecute ...a war that far away from home with the divisions we have here. ...I'm very depressed about it. Be- cause I see no program from either Defense or State that gives me much hope of doing anything, except just praying and gasping to hold on ...and hope they'll quit. I don't believe they're ever going to quit. And I don't see .. . any .. . plan for a victory—militarily or diplomatically.

~LBJ to ROBERT MCNAMARA, June 21, 1965

............

We know ourselves, in our own conscience, that when we asked for this [Gulf of Tonkin] resolution, we had no intention of committing this many ground troops. We're doing so now, and we know it's going to be bad. And the question is, Do we just want to do it out on a limb by ourselves? I don't know whether those [Pentagon] men have ever [calculated] whether we can win with the kind of training we have, the kind of power, and... whether we can have a united support at home.

~LBJ to ROBERT MCNAMARA, July 2,1965

Now they already know the war in Vietnam can't be won but notice the date when you look at the chart bellow.

You will note that over 55,000 Americans died in Vietnam after the above conversations - some of them friends and relatives of mine.  Why did this happen?  I explained in the comments of Steve's post.

But we can't simply pack up and leave because that would be a political disaster. So thousands will die and trillions of dollars in treasure will be squandered so they won't lose face and power.

That's right, 55,000 Americans died because of politics.

Like LBJ before him Obama has boxed himself into a no win corner.

Don't let this happen again!

Update

Great video by commenter dcrowe.

Update II

Related Post: Yet Another Vietnam-Afghanistan Analogy

Comments

[dcrowe]

I made an LBJ/Obama video a few days ago you might enjoy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BcjSvBz9vR4

Great post.

[Ron Beasley]

Thanks dcrowe
Put your video in the post.

[Bernard Finel]

My mood is bipolar on this. Sometimes, it seems like there is so much momentum on our side -- George Will! Feinstein just came out with doubts. Levin.... It seems like reason is just about to break out.

Then, on the other hand, I just can't see how Obama reverses course so soon, and if doesn't do it soon, he can't do it in an election year. So, maybe, if we're lucky 2011 before any serious reversal of the escalation occurs?

And in the meantime, we're held hostage to development in Afghanistan because as hard as it is to set a timeline for withdrawal now, it'll be even harder if the insurgency continues to gain ground.

[Ron Beasley]

I agree Bernard, Obama's hand will have to be forced and it may be by congress looking at public opinion. Another drop in support in the newest CNN poll and this time most of the drop was from conservatives.