July 16, 2009

The costs of Iraq

By Fester:

Fabius Maximus asks the question that I and many others have been asking --- what has been the value of 'winning' in Iraq:

This article does not even discuss in what sense “we won.” Let alone justifying the cost in blood (theirs and ours) and money. The monetary costs is probably over a trillion dollars, including future pay/benefits and replacement of equipment. We borrowed it from Asian and OPEC nations, and have no idea how to repay. They will demand repayment, eventually. Our children probably consider us to have been insane.

(1) There is little, almost no, evidence that Saddam was a threat to the US.

(a) Did we find those WMD’s? ....

(b) Saddam the terrorist threat to America....

(2) The insurgency was a result of our occupation, so defeating it brings no net benefit to the US.

(3) Will the Iraq — or Iraq and Kurdistan — be allies of the US? Too soon to say. Kurdistan has so far not allowed US bases in their territory; most of their oil leases have gone to non-US companies. The Shiites running the Iraq government have long-standing ties to Iran.

(4) No, we have not gotten any oil. Nothing to date indicates that we — or US oil companies — will have ownership or preferred access to Iraq, Kurdish, or Sunni Arab Iraq oil.

Summary: As an expert in 4GW theory said (personal communication):

So we won in Iraq. How many more such victories can we stand? The words of the immortal Pyrrhus echo through the ages: “One more such victory will undo me!” And the Red King had a legitimate claim to having won his battles.

Tim Lambert is doing yeoman work in inflicting reputational costs on the warbloggers and supporters so that future dumb ideas can be stopped before implementation:

With US combat troops withdrawing from Iraq's cities it is time to compare the 4639 coalition casualties with the predictions made by warbloggers before the war:

John Hawkins: "Probably 300 or less"
Charles Johnson:"Very few"
Henry Hanks: "Less than 200"
Laurence Simon: "A Few hundred"
Rachael Lucas: "Less than three thousand"
Scott Ott: "Dozens"
Glenn Reynolds: "Fewer than 100"
Tim Blair: "Below 50"
Ken Layne: "a few hundred"
Steven Den Beste: "50-150"