So How Many Divisions Do The Clerics Have?
By Steve Hynd
There's been a lot written in the West about the Iranian election protests, mostly by those who have a vested career or ideological interest in seeing the whole semi-democratic theocracy instituted by the 1979 revolution fall. Cynically, for many American pundits it all comes down to vicarious vengeance for those long-ago hostages but they've prettied it up in talk of democracy on the march and freedom agendas. It's a ridiculous fairy tale and even those pushing it know that to be the case.
The other version of the narrative is one of an internal power struggle between competing factions of Iran's elite. The Rafsanjani faction vs the Ahmadinejad faction, with the latter the actual outsiders and Mousavi's street-protesting supporters just bit players and the real prize the ability of one elite group or another to line its own pockets with Iran's oil wealth.
In that respect, the news that the Association of Researchers and Teachers of Qom, part of the Rafsanjani elite faction, has spoken out against Ahmadinejad's ballot-stuffing exageration of his electoral win is significant. But far more significant is the news that the Revolutionary Guard have confirmed their place beside Ahmadinejad in his coup to remove the "republic" from the Islamic Republic.
Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari, commander of the elite military branch, said the guard's takeover of the nation's security had led to "a revival of the revolution."
..."Because the Revolutionary Guard was assigned the task of controlling the situation, [it] took the initiative to quell a spiraling unrest. This event pushed us into a new phase of the revolution and political struggles and we have to understand all its dimensions."
...Jafari's comments came the closest yet to publicly acknowledging what government supporters describe as a heroic intervention by the Revolutionary Guard and critics decry as a palace "coup d'etat" instigated by military elites loyal to Khamenei.
..."Today, no one is impartial," Gen. Yadollah Javani said at the Sunday news conference, according to the Islamic Republic News Agency. "There are two currents -- those who defend and support the revolution and the establishment, and those who are trying to topple it."
Two totalitarian states -- a theocracy and a military dictatorship -- for the price of one!
I'm a little weak in history. Can anyone name precedents?
Posted by: Russ Wellen | July 07, 2009 at 08:32 AM
Rafasanjani is rumored to have close ties to the regular Iranian military, which is distinct from the IRGC. The IRGC has 140,000 troops, the military has 800,000, according to Wikipedia. Might be a bit of the Wehrmacht-SS rivalry brewing up there. Ostensibly, the military guards the frontiers, while the IRGC guards the revolution but then the revolution was one of, by, and for the clerics. Possible scenario though how likely it might be is impossible to tell at this distance.
Posted by: JohnShreffler | July 07, 2009 at 08:52 AM