The Republicans and another Tory Party

By BJ Bjornson

Ron linked to a post at TMV yesterday comparing the current Republican situation to the British Tories long exile from the halls of power, seemingly soon to end now that they've finally picked a new leader with newer, more moderate positions.

There is, however, another example in the Anglo-Americann world for a conservative party being pushed aside on the national scene for a decade or more, and it is one that doesn't end so well when looked upon from the progressive point of view.

The Canadian version of this story starts in 1993, when the Progressive Conservative Party, led for a few months by Kim Campbell, but previously in power for nine years under Brain Mulroney, suffered the most devastating federal election defeat in Canadian history. While this was in large part due to the unpopularity of the PC's by this point, it was helped considerably by the defection of several key Quebec MPs, who formed the separatist Bloc Quebecois, and the rise of the far-right Reform Party in Western Canada and the decision by its leader, Preston Manning, to compete nationally in the '93 election. Although the Reform party didn't win any seats outside of its western strongholds, they pulled enough enough right-wing voters to their side to ensure the defeat of many Tory MPs in vote-rich Ontario.

The PCs tried several leadership changes, but ultimately never recovered. In 2003, the remnants of the more moderate, but entirely under-funded and short on morale PC Party merged with the successor to the hardline Reform Party, the Canadian Alliance; larger, better-funded, and far more ideological than the PC Party had ever been.

The new Conservative Party blew their first chance at defeating the governing Liberals, who had been coasting without a unified right-wing opposition and had fallen into squabbling camps between the supporters of Jean Chretien and his successor Paul Martin, not to mention the effects of several brewing scandals from their time in power. The reason for the Conservative's loss was in part the less-than-politic comments being made by the furthest of far-right Conservative MPs, which scared enough Canadians into giving Martin a minority government.

Conservative leader Stephen Harper learned his lesson, though. The universal muzzle clamped upon any and all Conservatives since that time is virtually unprecedented. Harper's MPs cannot even write their local paper without going through his office.

The message discipline paid off, with Harper projecting a more moderate face for the party to the electorate while the Liberals first dealt with the fallout of the kind of scandals that always seem to go with long terms of one-party power, and then picked a leader so hapless it was actually painful to watch his performance on the national stage.  In all, enough that these new Conservatives have managed two minority governments so far, (fortunately, given the fact that when Harper tried to push through some real right-wing fodder, it was enough to cause the three opposition parties to stop their bickering long enough to nearly unseat him and spark a constitutional crisis, and ultimately a major climb-down by the Tories. Might be looking for some gods to help us should they ever get a majority, however).

Long story short, the Tory party that came out of the Canadian wilderness wasn't a kinder, gentler, more moderate and forward-looking version of the one that fell from grace, but a more regressive and ideological one. The moderate conservatives all but vanished as their own political force, ultimately splitting themselves between the Liberal and Conservative parties, becoming the Canadian version of "Blue Dogs" and "Traitors", if you will.

Which path will the US Republicans take, that of the British or Canadian Tories? I really can't hazard a guess, except to say that they will recover one way or the other, and it wouldn't be unlike them to try and put a moderate face on a more extreme agenda.

Comments

[Peter G.]

This is a fairly good precis of recent Canadian political history but it omits a key point which might elude our American neighbors and that is the Conservative Party would be indistinguishable from the Democratic Party on the political spectrum.

[BJ Bjornson]

the Conservative Party would be indistinguishable from the Democratic Party on the political spectrum.

Would that be any different from the British Conservative Party? And I would also say that it very much depends on the issue in question. On some, they are probably to left of a centrist Democrat like Obama, but their base does encompass the whole of the right, many of whom, Harper included, look to the Republicans for their inspiration. The Conservatives have been getting a great deal more mileage out of the old “culture war” issues of abortion and gay marriage in recent elections for me to think of them as Democrats, even if they’ve ultimately backed off doing anything about either. They are also the party where the movement to privatize our health care comes from, even if their leadership recognizes such as political suicide. Recently they decided pay equity for women was something that should be scrapped. Sound like a Democrat to you?

Back in the Red Tory days, the Conservatives probably were indistinguishable from the Democrats, and that remains true in some cases, but overall they have started to distinguish themselves, particularly on social issues, which is the whole point of this post.