Ridge is out

By Fester:

Tom Ridge has declined to run for the Republican nomination for Pennsylvania's Senate seat.  I am not too surprised by this announcement as why would it be a good move for him to run?  Let's get back to that in a minute.  First, here is the announcement from PA2010:

“After careful consideration and many conversations with friends and family and the leadership of my party, I have decided not to seek the Republican nomination for Senate.

“I am enormously grateful for the confidence my party expressed in me, the encouragement and kindness of my fellow citizens in Pennsylvania and the valuable counsel I received from so many of my party colleagues. The 2010 race has significant implications for my party, and that required thoughtful reflection....

If Ridge was to enter the race, he would face a bruising primary as his policy positions of being a moderate, pro-choice Republican are unacceptable to a significant faction of the state's Republican base.  He may have been able to get away with this four years, and especially eight years ago as the Republican base still contained a strong contingent of pro-choice voters in the Philadelphia suburbs.  However those voters have become Democrats.  Toomey would still run hard at him, and Ridge would be in for the fight of his life. 

And once he won the primary, he would be facing either another pro-choice moderate Republican in Specter or a successful southeastern PA suburban Democrat in Sestak who had consolidated union support behind him for the general election.  Given current partisan trends in Pennsylvania, the best Republican candidate is facing a tough fight against a mediocre Democratic candidate.  Ridge as a pro-choice Republican who beat down the anti-taxers in the form of Toomey would have no door knockers or phone bankers.  His only hope would be to either run the rubber chicken big donor circuit ten times a week for a thirty million dollar ad campaign or to do a complete 180 degree spin on lifelong policy positions to attract the door knockers of the Republican base. 

And if he was to win the general election, what fun would it be to be a Senator where the GOP's aspirational hope is to get to forty two or forty three seats in this term, and potentially get to fifty by 2013.  More likely he will join the Snowe-Collins axis of 'unpure Republicans' in a Senate with a Republican caucus of less than forty.  What fun is that? 

Not too much fun for the next four years of his life.  He has a good job and some influence, why throw that away in an uphill fight?  So I am not too surprised that he declined to run. 

Comments

[Ron Beasley]

I was waiting to hear from you on this. It always seemed to me nothing but fantasy to think that Ridge could win the primary in today's PA.