Continuing Republican Death Watch

By Fester:

I'm taking Ron's piece, but I just saw a couple of things that I want to highlight on young voters as I am one of those and I think the implications will become amazingly evident over my lifetime. 

First, let's start with the very useful Gallup graphic of net partisan identification by age cohort as determined by partisan control of the White House at the age of 18.  Democrats have a generic advantage of a couple of points no matter what, but identification share is positively correlated with partisan presidential evaluation.  Good Democratic presidents boost the young voter cohort's Democratic affiliation, while weak Democrats or successful GOP presidents weaken the affiliation.  Not a surprise there.  People lock in their preferences early and hold onto them unless there is a significant shock. 

TPM is passing along some more Gallup info:

A new analysis by Gallup, compiled from their national polling done all this year, shows just how extensive the Republican Party's drop in voter self-identification has been, with decreases in nearly every demographic.

Compared to 2001, when George W. Bush first took office as president, GOP self-identification has fallen by ten points among college graduates, nine points among those 18-29 years of age, nine points in the Midwest, six in the East, five in the West, and even four points in the South....

The only bright spots for the GOP are three base groups: Frequent churchgoers, with no decrease at all; conservatives, with only a one-point decrease; and voters 65 years of age or older, with a one-point decrease.

The nickel version is the Republican Party's internal dynamics are massively dysfunctional as the groups that are proportionally growing the fastest (and absolutely shrinking the least) within the coalition are the groups that either will be dying off or piss off the rest of the country.  This is the positive feedback dynamic that I have been pounding on for three years now. 

Finally, Ruy Texeria looks at the Millenials, of which I evidently am a borderline member of (that changes every couple of weeks as to whether I belong to Y or the Millenials)

And in 2020, the first presidential election where all Millennials will have reached voting age, this generation will be 103 million strong, of which about 90 million will be eligible voters. Those 90 million Millennial eligible voters will represent just under 40 percent of America’s eligible voters....

The survey included a battery of 40 statements, each of which was a positive expression of either a conservative or progressive argument, with an even mix between conservative and progressive arguments.

Overall, Millennials expressed far more agreement with the progressive than conservative arguments. Indeed, of the 21 values and beliefs garnering majority support in the survey, only four can be classified as conservative.

Comments

[Ron Beasley]

The really important point in Texeria's study is that the Millennials don't have a problem with government solutions to problems - the opposite of Reagan Republicans and a major Republican talking point. The more they push that portion of the Republican ideology the more they lose.