Iraq: Gates Gives Us Yet another "Last Gasp" Moment

By Steve Hynd

How many times now have we heard from Bush administration officials the insurgency in Iraq is having its "last gasp" as violence takes an uptick? I've lost count. Bob Gates, a holdover from Bush's days, is still at it. This time the subject is a series of four deadly bombings in Baghdad.

"These are spectacular events that are basically al- Qaeda’s last gasp, I hope,” Gates told reporters in Washington today.

The Guardian has spoken to Iraqis who have an entirely different take on those attacks - that they're reprisals for arrests of Sunni Awakening members and the violent supression by Iraqi and US forces of an armed insurrection in Baghdad subsequent to those arrests.

Yesterday's attacks follow a series of arrests of ranking members of the militias - known as Awakening Councils - whom government officials branded as outlaws. The arrests led to pitched street battles and have stirred anger among the groups, with some officials claiming they will soon be discarded despite the key role they played against al-Qaida in 2007. A spokesman for Iraq's interior ministry said Iraqi officials had an open mind about the cause of yesterday's violence but feared it might be the start of a renewed push.

... Sheikh Ali Hatem al-Suleiman, a tribal leader from Anbar province, which acted as the gateway for foreign insurgents, said there was a clear link between the renewed violence and current political tensions. "Five to six months ago we warned the government, but there are many officers in the government that did not accept them, like the parliament, which has been slow to approve their salaries," he said. "This has caused an adverse effect. Also, when they have been arresting Awakening leaders, they are using great force. If they are wanted by the Iraqi government, why are they dealing with them in the first place, giving them weapons and salaries? It is a mistake to arrest them like this."

A spokesman for the Awakening Councils acknowledged that al-Qaida members had infiltrated the movement's ranks, but said it was now up to the security forces to weed them out.

That last statement's an eye-opener. The Awakening was the tide-turner of Sunni resistance against AQI, now they're saying it's the security forces problem to root out AQI members within Awakening ranks - presumably something the Awakening's armed militias wouldn't take lying down.

Far from being a "last gasp", this looks very like a harbringer of worse to come. Isn't it always when a US official uses that jinxed phrase?

(A big hat tip to Kat for both links.)

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[Ron Beasley]

As I said below - Where's The Change?