Go Vermont

By Fester:

Go Vermont --- eat more maple syrup with your pancakes :)

Vermont has become the fourth state to legalize gay marriage — and the first to do so with a legislature’s vote.

The Legislature voted Tuesday to override Gov. Jim Douglas’ veto of a bill allowing gays and lesbians to marry. The vote was 23-5 to override in the state Senate and 100-49 to override in the House. Under Vermont law, two-thirds of each chamber had to vote for override...

The vote came nine years after Vermont adopted its first-in-the-nation civil unions law

Just a couple of things here --- this is going to look ridiculous in fifteen years that it has taken so damn long.  As Michael McDonald notes Generation Y turnout was up both absolutely and proportionally this election cycle and we as a generation either are happily indifferent about gay marriage or actively in support of gay marriage.  It is not a scary thing, and as my generation moves into the prime voting years of our cohort's lifespan and the pre-Boomers die off, the political equation becomes absurdly in favor of gay marriage or not giving an affirmative rat's ass either way. 

Second, the social cons are screwed. Rod Dreher wants to push for a Constitutional amendment:

enough backlash left in the American people to get a constitutional amendment passed erecting a high barrier or protection around religious institutions

Five Thirty Eight is projecting that the minimal blocking coalition at the state level will be in place by 2010 for an anti-gay marraige amendment.  The problem with this model is that it only looks at public majorities and not institutional blocking points and pressure group politics. Iowa is a good example of institutional blocking points as the 538 model projects a narrow electoral defeat for gay marriage in Iowa if a vote was to be held tomorrow.  However the state legislature will not allow a referandum to go forward.  The minimal blocking coalition is already in place. 

The social cons are in a polarization and freeper hostage crisis mode.  They can throw some weight around within the GOP primary universe but they can not effectively grow beyond that base.  To paraphrase Rove --- the social cons have split the country in half, and they ended up with the much smaller piece.  However they are still a large enough group, combined with authoritarian assholes who just dislike liberals, to be a dominant faction if not the dominating faction within many Republican primary universes.  The positive feedback cycle of general election attractive candidates not getting through the primary cycle will continue, and potentially accelerate if this is a make or break issue for Republicans. 

But mainly, good job Vermont and Iowa and D.C. this week!

Comments

[farside268]

I think this reinforces my argument for a strong correlation between per capita maple syrup production and being cool.