Three Taliban groups join forces against US surge

By Steve Hynd

The UK's Guardian reports (h/t Kat) that the Pakistan Taliban of Baitullah Mehsud are joining forces with rivals who have always focussed solely on Afghanistan and the US-led occupation there.

The unity among the militants comes after a call by Mullah Omar, the cleric who leads the Afghan Taliban, telling Pakistani militants to stop fighting at home in order to join the battle to "liberate Afghanistan from the occupation forces".

The Pakistani Taliban movement was split between a powerful group led by the warlord Baitullah Mehsud and his bitter rivals, Maulvi Nazir and Gul Bahadur. While Mehsud has targeted Pakistan itself in a campaign of violence and is accused of being behind the assassination of the former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, Nazir and Bahadur sent men to fight alongside other insurgents in Afghanistan.

The move potentially provides short-term relief in Pakistan but imperils Nato forces, especially those stationed in southern and eastern Afghanistan, including the British, close to the Pakistani border.

"It's of concern to us when we see a grouping like that," said a western security official in Pakistan. "This can't be ignored."

... "If anybody really wants to wage jihad, he must fight the occupation forces inside Afghanistan," Mullah Omar told Pakistani militants in a letter. "Attacks on the Pakistani security forces and killing of fellow Muslims by the militants in the tribal areas and elsewhere in Pakistan is bringing a bad name to mujahideen and harming the war against the US and Nato forces in Afghanistan."

The Pakistani Taliban recognise Mullah Omar, founder of the Taliban movement in Afghanistan, as their ultimate leader, although operationally they work independently.

"Baitullah Mehsud is now taking on the Americans," said Talat Masood, a retired Pakistani general turned analyst. Baitullah Mehsud has recently called off his fighters in two key battles inside Pakistan, with ceasefires declared in Swat valley, in the North West Frontier Province, and Bajaur, another tribal area. While Pakistani forces claim to have "won" in Bajaur, they show no appetite for taking the war to Waziristan.

This isn't confirmed, but if true it's not good news in more ways than just providing more Taliban fighters to contest the US "surge". Such an alliance would be a blow to the US-led coalition in Afghanistan as it attempts a "disaggregation" strategy, peeling away more moderate Taliban leaders and local groups affiliated with the Taliban who are less inclined to associate themselves with Al Qaeda's global jihad or who are willing to make moderating concessions on such as women's rights, democratic rule or co-operating with the Kabul government. This alliance may well presage a "unification" of the "big factions" of the Taliban under Mehsud, Omar and Haqqani - the latter two have always concentrated on Afghanistan and said that the Pakistani military and government should not be the subject of attacks. If Mehsud is listening to Omar again, then such a unification is certainly possible. In any case, alliances between factions are bad news because they increase the "power of the brand" and make it more difficult to drive wedges between Taliban core factions and associated groups of "local Taliban". General Petraeus, if he hopes to create local Pashtun militias in Afghanistan, must be able to split those local leaders away.

Moreover, if true, this alliance has just removed much of Pakistan's motivation for co- operation in the GWOT (tm). If Mehsud's folk aren't attacking Pakistan's feudal power elite, then that elite will default, as they always have, to running the Taliban as a proxy force against Afghanistan and foreign (especially Indian) influence there - while on the Pakistan street the War On Terror will become even more America's war rather than their own, strengthening Sharif just as Zardari tries to cut him off at the knees. 

Update: Over at American Footprints, China Hand has a refreshingly brisk take on the Pakistan dynamic:

It’s now pretty obvious that the cease-fire with the Pakistan Taliban and agreement to allow the imposition of sharia law in the valley of Swat was part of Zardari’s effort to keep a lid on things in the border regions so he could concentrate on the threat of unrest in Punjab and Islamabad from Sharif’s supporters after the Supreme Court decision.

Of course, giving the Pakistani Taliban a free hand to prepare and participate in the massive offensive against U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan scheduled for this spring under Mullah Omar’s direction is not exactly prudent, wise, or morally defensible.

It’s quite possible that Zardari will renege on the deal with the Taliban if and when he feels he has the Sharif situation under control and resume his designated role as America’s willing if not particularly able and honorable client.

However, if Zardari can’t quiet things in Punjab and resume military activities in the Pashtun areas and everything turns to ordure, the United States might decide that there’s no alternative to another round of military rule.

Yup.

Comments

[Peter G.]

I'm not sure I'd say this is all bad news. The Taliban groups are likely to find they were much safer operating in the tribal areas of Pakistan. The political complications of dealing with them militarily in those safe havens will disappear. Mullah Omar is showing some hubris here.

[Steve Hynd]

Peter, they'll still be returning to those safe havens after missions, unimpeded by the Pakistani military.

Regards, S