The TAZ in Swat

By Fester:

Pashtum Islamists and tribal militias have carved out a recognized temporary autonomous zone in the Swat Valley from the Pakistani government.  Al Jazeera reports:

Pakistan's government has agreed to restore sharia, or Islamic law, in the Swat Valley and neighbouring areas of the country's northwest as part of a peace deal with local pro-Taliban fighters....

The Pakistani government has also agreed its troops will refrain from launching military operations in Swat as part of the deal....

"However, this will not mean that the groups opposed to the government will be dispensing that justice. The government of Pakistan will appoint the judges."

And who really believes that the judges will be responsive to Islamabad instead of the local elites who were able to force the national government out of the region?  I have a bridge to sell you in the Khyber Pass.

This is bad news, as it creates a fairly large and not dirt poor autonomous zone where no real rule of internationally recognized law or legitimacy exists.  It is symptomatic of the very loose hold on power that the national Pakistani government has on the effective levers of power, and it is symptomatic of the fragmentation that is occurring throughout the region.

However, there are a few potential bright spots.  The first is a pragmatic one that James Joyner identifies:

it strikes me as a concession to reality.  Pakistan's government doesn't control most of the territory labeled "Pakistan" on the map.  This may just amount to picking their fights carefully as they try to extend control to regions most crucial to its security and relations with India and the United States.

Secondly, Islamists in a broad stroke, have not figured out how to implement strict Sharia without losing the support and legitimacy derived from a good chunk of the local population that is less hardline but still Sharia leaning than the vanguard fighters.  If the local authorities ban cigarettes, hair style choices and other small symbolic and popular acts, their support will fall through the floor.