The Calculus of Spectering

By Fester:

The Stimulus bill passed out of the Senate with 61 affirmative votes, one more than necessary.  As expected, all 58 seated Democrats voted for the bill, and the two Maine Republicans also voted for it.  That is the minimal winning coalition.  However one more Senator voted for it, and I am trying to figure out his calculus.  Senator Specter voted for a politically risky position that is not favored by the Republican base nor is it a pointless evasion of responsibility as he exhibited in his 'not proven'  attempt at splitting the baby in the Clinton impeachment votes.  This is unusual behavior for him. 

Why?  What is the electoral calculus?

I am assuming that Senator Specter is running for re-election AND that he wants to win.  If either assumption is untrue, then he will vote idiosyncratically.  However if they are true, then we can attempt to create a calculus for him.

He has to win two elections to be re-elected.  The first one is a closed Republican primary.  The Pennsylvania Republican Party is shifting its center of gravity from the Philadelphia Main Line to the Appalachian valleys and Southwestern Pennsylvania.  This is a more culturally conservative and economically depressed electorate than one found in Montgomery and Delaware Counties. 

A "no" vote on the stimulus would be an easy vote for him to curry favor with the conservative primary electorate.  However a "yes" vote is a very contentious vote that could bring in serious ideological money to fund a primary challenge. 

The Club for Growth is considering an ideological challenge or at least funding one if someone decides to run an ideological challenge:

I spoke today with Nachama Soloveichik, the Club's communications director, and she confirmed that they're hearing a lot of anger over the compromise. "Grassroots Republicans are infuriated. They're fed up. They've had it," Soloveichik said, even going so far as to add that for many, "this is the ultimate act of treason."

Soloveichik said that no specific potential primary challengers have stepped forward just yet. Toomey, who now serves as the Club's president, is currently eyeing a possible campaign for governor of Pennsylvania, not Senate. But she sounded optimistic: "Whenever there is a constituency for a challenger, then people start looking at the opportunities."

The National Republican Trust PAC is also looking to impose significant political costs on the three Republicans who voted for the bill out of the Senate:

"Republican senators are on notice," he said. "If they support the stimulus package, we will make sure every voter in their state knows how they tried to further bankrupt voters in an already bad economy."

Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins of Maine and Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania were the three GOP senators who voted for the bill Tuesday....

"[Sen. Specter] crossed the line one too many times," Wheeler told CNN. "We're now going to get involved in finding a conservative alternative."

I am assuming that Sen. Specter is assuming that this is either all sound and fury or that he can rather easily dispatch a second rate primary challenger.  If he can not easily dispatch a second rate challenger or faces a first rate challenge from his right flank, it greatly threatens his second election that he must win, the November general election.

Right now there is strong speculation about several credible and first tier Democrats entering the race to challenge for Specter's seat.  I am curious if there is a political quid-pro-quo that first tier Democrats don't enter the race if Specter supports Obama or in a weaker version of this speculation that  the unions, which have been very friendly to Specter in the past, stay neutral in return for Specter's occasssional vote.  If that is the case, Specter's support for Obama would give him one tough fight in the GOP primary and then a repeat of 2004 in facing a second tier challenger which would lead to an easy victory.  And if Specter loses the primary, the second tier Democrat should be able to romp over the conservative primary winner.

I'm trying to figure out the political logic here, and that is probably the best explanation that I can think of --- a first tier primary battle and a second tier general election fight is Specter's best chance of re-election.