Increasing Hamas' Power
By Fester:
The Isrealis had multiple goals that they wanted to achieve in their Gazan incursion. Two of those goals were to stop harrassment rocket fire into Southern Isreal and to break the local legitimacy and support Hamas enjoys in the Palestinian territories while propping up Fatah as a weak and pliable political alternative. The rockets are still inbound and Hamas is reconsolidating power while increasing its influence on the West Bank, which is Fatah's stronghold.
Israel's war on Hamas in Gaza, which killed more than 1,300 people and left large swathes of the territory in ruins, has boosted the popularity of the Islamists, an opinion poll found on Thursday.
Hamas would get 28.6 percent of the vote compared with 27.9 percent for the rival Fatah faction of Western-backed president Mahmud Abbas if elections were held today, according to the survey by the Jerusalem Media and Communications Centre.
It marks the first time that an opinion poll has placed Hamas in front of Fatah, which it ousted from the Gaza Strip in deadly fighting in June 2007.
Now that is a non-shocking result. People support groups who are perceived as defending their homes and neighborhoods against attack and bombardment. People do not support groups that are supporting the groups that are attacking and bombing their homes and neighborhoods. Absolutely shocking development here, it is not like there is any historical reason to suspect that would be the case. Except for Germany in WWII, Japan in WWII, Baghdad, Beirut, Southern Lebanon, Belgrade etc.. If you expected any other reaction, one is either insane under Einstein's definition or in the Air Force.
Hamas is attempting to consolidate its hold on power by being the sole source of relief and supplies. This is similar to Hezbollah's civilian side strategy for the past couple of decades. And it is straight out Guerilla Warfare, the Intermediate Seminar reading material.
This attempt to be the sole support has Hamas doing some very risky and potentially counter-productive actions including stealing food from the United Nations warehouses:
The United Nations accused Hamas on Wednesday of seizing thousands of blankets and hundreds of food parcels meant for needy residents of the Gaza Strip.
Spokesman Christopher Gunness said Hamas police raided a U.N. warehouse in Gaza City on Tuesday evening. The aid is particularly vital as Gazans face hardship in the wake of Israel's three-week military offensive in the territory.
If that food came with a UN face attached to it, that is another source of primary loyalties for the recipient, especially if there is repeated follow-up deliveries. If that food comes from a Hamas hand, primary loyalties will consolidate behind Hamas.
Abu M. is not surprised by this development and thinks that this could be an opportunity for role reversal messaging:
Now this presents an information operations opportunity for Israel and, potentially, Fatah. Will either be smart enough to exploit it?
Who am I kidding? Probably not.
So Isreal is seeing a more entrenched Hamas, continued rocket fire, decreased legitimacy, decreased relationships with previous allies and a discredited puppet in Fatah... the Gaza shock and awe is looking more and more like a major whoopsies...
Now that is a sensible analysis. Most of what you described were entirely predictable consequences of Cast Lead. The Israeli strategy, if you want to call it that, was to inflict sufficient damage on Hamas to make them think twice about their policies. Only time will tell if it had any such effect. The 2006 parade of stupidity had the same intent with Hezbollah. Although often described as a victory for Hezbollah it was a Pyrrhic victory at best. They wisely elected not to open a second front during the latest unpleasantness so perhaps it was not a total waste of time.
Posted by: Peter G. | February 06, 2009 at 05:14 PM