Desperation in the Drug War

By Fester:

Ahh, remember the days when pointing out that the Iraqi insurgency (before it got bought out in the Awakening process) was conducting large scale, complex and pervasive attacks meant that a CentCom spokesman or a GOP talking head would note that the increase in violence, complexity, organization and effectiveness of attacks meant the insurgency was getting desperate and on its last legs.  We first saw that in 2003 when the insurgency was just dead-enders and then in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008. Increasing capacity and skill was just a matter of desperation.  More violence meant the US was winning, as well as less violence meant the surge worked despite failing politically. 

This same logic is being applied to the war on drugs in Mexico and the border regions of the United States.  Balloon Juice caught this chunk on the violence in Mexico from the Wall Street Journal:

 

“If the drug effort were failing there would be no violence,” a senior U.S. official said Wednesday. There is violence “because these guys are flailing. We’re taking these guys out. The worst thing you could do is stop now.”

Yep, the drug cartels are desperate.  They have created effectively lawless zones on the border, have the Mexican police, army and political apparatus infilitrated, have significant cash flow advantages over the Mexican state, and significant liquidity advantages as well.  They are desperate. 

One or two more large brigade size sweeps through Haditha should solve the problem of a desperate insurgency, we'll only lose a couple squads, get IEDed a dozen times and get no useful intelligence while pissing off the relevant local elites, but the insurgency has to be getting desperate by now.  That was the US strategy for four years, and it worked wonders....