The Divided States of America

by Jay McDonough

Igor Panarin is a Russian political scientist who's been predicting for over a decade the U.S. will collapse and break apart in 2010.  And, for whatever reason - envy, revenge, boredom - he's found an eager audience in the Russian state media. I wrote a post about his predictions in November and the Wall Street Journal had a profile on Panarin this week.

Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.

In recent weeks, he's been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. "It's a record," says Prof. Panarin. "But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger."

He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.

Prof. Panarin is fairly specific about how he envisions the U.S. separating.  Here's his map:

Note: Mr. Panarin is not alone.  Several others have been predicting the demise of the U.S., including another Russian, Dmitry Orlov.  Mr. Orlov's thesis is the conditions in the United States are now quite similar to those that occurred in the Soviet Union just prior to it's collapse and break up into disparate republics.

How about that for some happy news for a Saturday?

(h/t Boing Boing)

Comments

[BJ Bjornson]

I have to say that while I find the concept intriguing, particularly living in a country where possible breaking up is a perennial favourite topic, but he should really re-think his map. I'm having a really hard time seeing Kentucky and Tennessee going along with Connecticut and Massachusetts to go off and join the EU. The Central North-American Repubic would start out with at least twice the population of Canada as a whole, so its being subservient to any degree seems unlikely. Utah doesn't seem like such a great fit with the west coast, and the Mexican dominated region seems to me leaning the wrong direction from Texas, east rather than west.

To do this properly, you need to put all of North America on the map and see where the regions start to break down across country and state lines. I'm sure it would end up being quite messy regardless.

[cheflovesbeer]

I read about it the other day. It is good to see the actual map. I agree with BJ that KY and TN would not go with the Atlantic. But SC in the Atlantic? No way. Until recently both VA and NC would not be in the Atlantic either. Southern VA would secede. From Northern VA.

CO and NM would go with the California Republic. UT and ID would go with The central district.Its fun to think about.

The guy clearly does not understand the geopolitical differences in this country.

Also, I predict riots.

[Josh]

He has both the probability and the division wrong. Here's an alternate take on both:
http://www.futureatlas.com/blog/index.php/2009/01/03/us-disintegration/

[Freelance Minion]

This is dreaming on the part of a bunch of annoyed Russians and a proof of the author's ignorance of American politics and culture. I suppose it is fair, we probably do it to them all the time as well and maybe it is even meant as a joke on us for all that bad Russian political misreading.

But seriously, south carolina is more likely to join confederation with Massachusetts than Texas? Texas and other Southeast states are likely to fall under the sway of Mexico? Alaskans will join Russia?

Nah, its a big joke on us. Or Russia's answer to Bill Kristol.