Maliki and the Ayatollah, sitting in a tree...

By Cernig

Not that its any surprise to anyone who paid attention to Maliki's roots and funding, but Marc Lynch underscores just how much the invasion and occupation of Iraq has upset the regional balance in the Gulf region - in favor of Iran.

The enduring image of President George W. Bush's final visit to Baghad was without question Montazer al-Zaydi's flying shoes. The enduring image of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's quick trip to Tehran this week will likely be this image of his cordial get-together with Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (with no flying shoes in sight). The contrasting symbolism of the two visits could hardly be lost on Iraqis or Arabs pondering the real winner of the U.S.-Iraqi Status of Forces Agreement negotiations (which Iraqis call the Withdrawal Agreement) or the future of Iraq.

...The erstwhile U.S. ally showed no signs of disagreeing with his Iranian hosts on the regional issue of the day. Doing so would have scored him no political points in Iraq, where solidarity with Gaza seems to be as high as anywhere else in the region. Maliki's government long ago issued a statement condemning the Israeli attack on Gaza, as did the Iraqi Parliament, Ayatollah Ali Sistani, and many of the leading political parties. So not surprising -- though perhaps noteworthy at a time when Michael Oren, tasked to "reinforce Israel's position in the media military", declares that "in Gaza, the real enemy is Iran."To steal Spencer Ackerman's line, "next stop: Baghdad?"

The two sides instead talked of more prosaic things such as increasing trade and Iranian investment in Iraq. Iraq again promised that its land would never be used to attack its neighbor. Khamenei warned that the U.S. would likely break its agreements (a fear already widespread among Iraqis, and unfortunately fueled of late by injudicious remarks by General Ray Odierno and other military officials about U.S. plans). Iran's Arabic-language al-Alam focused on Khamenei's claim that most of the violence in Iraq was due to the presence of American and British forces (no objection from Maliki is noted). Whatever the private conversations, the Iranians did not seem particularly dismayed by the SOFA or to view it as the defeat described in some American rhetoric.

The neocons really screwed the pooch there. But Marc's correct when he writes that Iraq's Shiite majority government's being naturally an ally of Iran's is "a potential positive if managed well." Maliki has to keep on Obama's good side too, simply because the US will have those tens of thousands of troops trainers in-country for a while yet. That means Maliki's Iraq can be a useful gateway for Obama's diplomatic initiatives with Iran.

Comments

[Rudi]

Ironic that we didn't see any shoes flying. While Maliki was in Iran we opened up the US Embassy, see who the Iraqis value more.