Israel In Gaza, Shooting Itself In The Foot

By Cernig

I wrote about Israel's lack of strategic mission in Gaza, and its ignoring of all the wise heads on 4th generation warfare, the other day. Now Scott Lemiex expands upon that by way of Charles Krauthammer as spokesman for the entire "kill everyone, let God sort them out" mindset of the extreme right.

America's Worst Columnist says that "there are only two possible endgames: (A) a Lebanon-like cessation of hostilities to be supervised by international observers, or (B) the disintegration of Hamas rule in Gaza." It will not surprise you that he advocates for (B). Alas, it will also not surprise you to know that he doesn't seem to consider the question of what exactly Hamas would be replaced by should these aims be achieved. The assumption that a lengthy, destructive Israeli bombing campaign will produce a government more sympathetic to Israel and less sympathetic to Iran is so transparently idiotic that I think we can assume it's the one that Krauthammer is working with.

The most likely answer to "what would Hamas be replaced with", given Israel's actions, is something even nastier and more extremist. Which is why it wouldn't be a bad idea to make covert overtures towards Hamas in an attempt to push it towards more moderate polices. That's always at least remotely possible (reference Northern Ireland and the conversion of the Irgun terror group into statesmen who could win Nobel Peace Prizes) whereas the end of Palestinian terrorism by meeting it with equal atrocities simply isn't.

It's highly unlikely that Palestinians will be in any mood to forget the shelling of refugees in a UN school - something the Israeli Defense Force originally alleged was in response to militant activity "near to" the building (no-one said how near) and which had been met, confusingly by the IDF's own statements, by either return mortar fire or bombs or artillery shells depending upon which statement the pro-Israel lobby were taking as gospel at any time. Now, however, the UN says that senior IDF officials have admitted a mistake.

UNRWA spokesman Chris Gunness told Haaretz yesterday that the army had conceded wrongdoing.

"In briefings senior [Israel Defense Forces] officers conducted for foreign diplomats, they admitted the shelling to which IDF forces in Jabalya were responding did not originate from the school," Gunness said. "The IDF admitted in that briefing that the attack on the UN site was unintentional."

He noted that all the footage released by the IDF of militants firing from inside the school was from 2007 and not from the incident itself.

"There are no up-to-date photos," Gunness said. "In 2007, we abandoned the site and only then did the militants take it over."

The UNRWA is now demanding an objective investigation into whether the school shelling constituted a violation of international humanitarian law, and if so, that those responsible stand trial.

That's rather reminiscent of US military's "deny then apologise" course on airstrikes on civilians in Afghanistan and reminds me that Israel is also using the Bush administration's favorite set of justifications for the use of indiscriminate incendiary devices over urban populations too. And yes - Hamas is both an elected majority and a group with a terrorist wing and terrorist ideology. But that doesn't excuse "a hundred eyes for an eye". It doesn't excuse shutting out appointed UN envoys. It doesn't excuse this kind of mistake (if its a mistake):

At least 30 people were killed in the Zeitoun district of Gaza after Israeli troops repeatedly shelled a house to which more than 100 Palestinians had been evacuated by the Israeli military, the UN said today.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), said in a report it was "one of the gravest incidents since the beginning of operations" against Hamas militants in Gaza by the Israeli military on 27 December.

OCHA said the incident took place on 4 January, a day after Israel began its ground offensive in Gaza. According to testimonies gathered by the UN, Israeli soldiers evacuated about 110 Palestinians to a single-storey house in Zeitoun, south-east Gaza. The evacuees were instructed to stay indoors for their safety but 24 hours later the Israeli army shelled the house. About half the Palestinians sheltering in the house were children, OCHA said. The report also complains that the Israeli Defence Force prevented medical teams from entering the area to evacuate the wounded.

The OCHA report does not accuse Israel of a deliberate act but calls for an investigation. Responding to the report, an Israeli military spokeswoman, Avital Leibovich, told AFP news agency: "From initial checking, we don't have knowledge of this incident. We started an inquiry but we still don't know about it."

It seems obvious that this war in a fishbowl, where civilians have nowhere to run to by Israeli design and so Israel can continue to allege that Hamas is using them as "human shields" instead of coming out into the field to fight fair and receive a proper ass-kicking, is entirely counterproductive to Israel's longterm aims if those aims are indeed to see an end to Palestinian extremism and terrorist attacks on Israeli civilians. Gideon Lichfield wries for the International Herald Tribune (h/t War in Context):

What Israel should do now is work for a cease-fire on terms that allow both sides to save some face. It should then do something it has done far too little of in the past: improve Gazans’ living conditions significantly. The aim should be to construct a long-lived state of calm in which Hamas has more to lose by breaching the cease-fire than by sticking to it.

In the longer term Israel will have to accept that Hamas is no fringe movement that can be rooted out and destroyed, but a central part of Palestinian society. This will be the hard part, not least because of the opposition from Hamas’ secularist Palestinian rivals, Fatah.

But even though Hamas’s stated goal is Israel’s destruction, it has said many times that it would accept a truce extending decades. Some former Israeli security chiefs argue that such an accommodation - a peace treaty in all but name - would eventually oblige Hamas to accept Israel’s existence, or else lose its own base of support. It is a gamble, certainly. But the alternative is more innocent lives lost, more extremism and ultimately more trouble for Israel.

Update: Journalist Gareth Porter has an important article that suggests Israel has an agenda other than its stated one of peace:

Contrary to Israel's argument that it was forced to launch its air and ground offensive against Gaza in order to stop the firing of rockets into its territory, Hamas proposed in mid-December to return to the original Hamas-Israel ceasefire arrangement, according to a U.S.-based source who has been briefed on the proposal.

The proposal to renew the ceasefire was presented by a high-level Hamas delegation to Egyptian Minister of Intelligence Omar Suleiman at a meeting in Cairo Dec. 14. The delegation, said to have included Moussa Abu Marzouk, the second-ranking official in the Hamas political bureau in Damascus, told Suleiman that Hamas was prepared to stop all rocket attacks against Israel if the Israelis would open up the Gaza border crossings and pledge not to launch attacks in Gaza.

The Hamas officials insisted that Israel not be allowed to close or reduce commercial traffic through border crossings for political purposes, as it had done during the six-month lull, according to the source. They asked Suleiman, who had served as mediator between Israel and Hamas in negotiating the original six-month Gaza ceasefire last spring, to "put pressure" on Israel to take that the ceasefire proposal seriously.

Suleiman said he could not pressure Israel but could only make the suggestion to Israeli officials. It could not be learned, however, whether Israel explicitly rejected the Hamas proposal or simply refused to respond to Egypt.

Well now.

Comments

[Ali S]

The comment you made about "a hundred eyes for an eye" made me think of an article ( http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jan/07/gaza-israel-palestine )I read a couple of days ago in Gaurdian. The author Avi Shlaim, a professor of international relations at the University of Oxford and an author, made the comment "The Biblical injunction of an eye for an eye is savage enough. But Israel's insane offensive against Gaza seems to follow the logic of an eye for an eyelash.". The rest of the article is a good also, I think Newshoggers have done a good job of making of the same points and arriving at the same conclusions. Keep up the good work.

[Norm]

The "Palestinian Mood" ? You think Israeli military planners are worried about their mood ? You look down your nose at Krauthammer ?

Tell me, where was your voice during the past few years when the Palestinians did nothing but import people killing weapons ? Did you object ? I doubt it.

Israel accomodated world opinion and their own hope that leaving Gaza would remake the Palestinian mindset, and a permanent peace would be negotiated. But instead of thinking about such high and lofty goals...as peace, and the best welfare of Palestinian society, all they thought of was war.

Then come people like you who think Israel shot itself in the foot? You are so naive, it is astounding. Hamas is "eventually" going to accept Israel....WTF..amazing. That's like your neighbor next door is a psycho-killer...and you figure that your three kids are ok because one day the psycho-killer will be just fine. What do you think Gaza is far away from Israel...like the US and Vietnam ?

Your post is embarrassing. The reality is that if you poke the Lion, and keep poking the Lion, unless you are a complete moron, you got to know that the Lion is going to eventually turn and swipe your face off. And then what are you going to do ? Turn around and cry that the Lion's reaction was not "proportional" to your poking ? Please give us a break and wake up. Is Israel over-reacting ? Perhaps. But every Arab in this world knew Israel would over-react.

[Linda]

"But even though Hamas’s stated goal is Israel’s destruction, it has said many times that it would accept a truce extending decades."

I find it very hard to believe that someone could write that and then...then think Israel the aggressor. Please give me a break. Have you kept record of the THOUSANDS of rockets that have been fired into Israel? Do you know (or care) about the stories of Jewish lives (children) that have traumatized by living DAILY under the threat of a siren going off with just seconds to find cover? Hamas is only the tip of the ice berg...they are a terriort group brought to power by the people’s choice...they were elected. That means that the people who live in Gaza (majority) also desire Israel's destruction...and as far as not allowing humanitarian aid, Gaza receives the largest percentage of funding from the UNHCR...how you think they pay for those THOUSANDS of bombs. The money is there, it is just the leaders of Gaza hate Israel MORE than they love their own children. I have never heard of one Israeli sending their women or children to be a human suicide bomb. Have you? Have you seen the brainwashing 'cartoons' of the children in Gaza? Using a Mickey Mouse look alike no less? He is killed by a Jew. For someone who seems to pride himself on knowing and searching out the truth, you seem to have only looked on one side of your trough.

[Steve Hynd]

Linda and Norm,

The Irgun and the IRA.

Regards, C

[courtneyme109]

Well, HAMAS did promise to turn the Strip into a Graveyard.

Little Satan's Strategic rationale is actually quite clear!

Annihilate HAMAS. Specifically, the 'military' wing of HAMAS is called by the snazzy, jazzy nom de guerre of Izzedeen al K'Ssam.

Tote the Strip's HAMAS leadership out in bodybags or rat them out of their secret, civilian rich lairs and parade them out of the Strip sans britches (just like HAMAS did to Fatah!)

Either way is fine.

Amd in a really cool way it also serves Great Satan's Strategic hot desires too.

Consider, If, ideally, Great Satan is to engage and confront Iran on some sunny day with diplomacy, that trek would prob best be served in the sweet sexyful afterglow of the total defeat and marginalization of Iranian minions and their fully crunk missile base in the Strip.

The real tragedy is HAMAS. The audacity of Khaled Mashaal, the Hamas supreme leader, who called for the launch of a third intifada from exile in Syria, far far away and safe as milk in Basharopolis declared the resistance “has lost very few people” as the body count soars.

Couldn’t he smuggle himself into the Strip to be with his resistance fighters?

By any standards HAMAS has failed miserably. It has failed in peace, failed in governance, and moreover failed in war. In addition to HAMAS' ambiguous political agenda, their goal seems to be resistance for the sake of resistance, a quagmire where the journey really is the destination.

It is time for HAMAS to split and allow more competent leaders to emerge before the death cult fanboys running and ruining the Strip do even more damage to the cause of Palestine.

[truth101]

One of the things that struck me was your worry that when Hamas was driven out an even worse regime would take over Cernig. Israel itself should take Gaza back. The Palestinian Authority has not shown it has authority over much of anything. Hamas is all about the kill. The average Palestinian in reality would probably just like to live and raise his family in peace no matter who is in charge. It sucks they are paying a price because a few assholes hijacked their religion. But until a Ghandi figure arises among the Palestinians the world be be on his/her side. Till then the Palestinians will have to bear the brunt of the misery which lays squarely at the feet of the terrorists they put in charge.

[Steve Hynd]

Courtney, I'll agree wqholeheartedly with this:

"By any standards HAMAS has failed miserably. It has failed in peace, failed in governance, and moreover failed in war. In addition to HAMAS' ambiguous political agenda, their goal seems to be resistance for the sake of resistance, a quagmire where the journey really is the destination.

It is time for HAMAS to split and allow more competent leaders to emerge."

I disagree that can be accomplished by wholesale slaughter of civilians. What worked for the Irgun and IRA can work again.

truth101, see up-blog for details of atrocities committed by those you want to put in charge of Palestine. Since 2002, Israel "killed about 2,700 Palestinians in Gaza by targeted killings, aerial bombings, in raids, etc., according to the Israeli human rights group B'Tselem." They're using WP rounds over urban areas. The notion they would provide humane or even-handed governance is as ridiculous as the idea Hamas will.

Regards, C

[truth101]

If your goal was to play into the hands of The Nutty Professor and the rest of the right wing fools all I can say is "Mission Accomplished" Cernig. Look at what you printed in response to my post friend. "The notion they(Israel)would provide humane or even handed governance is as ridiculous as the idea Hamas will."

I'll take my chances with Israel and the humane treatment it's citizens enjoy over the women oppressing, hate filled assholes that is Hamas.

[Linda]

Cernig,

I am afraid that I did not understand what you were saying in your response:

Linda and Norm,

The Irgun and the IRA.

Regards, C

This is my first time on your site and I am not familiar with your 'shorthand'. Would you please explain? Thank you.

I also ran across a few things this morning. I am posting a web site. It takes appprox. 7 min. 13 sec. to watch, (on youtube). I would appreciate it if you would take the time to watch it: start to finish. It was actually very difficut for me to go to the end, but that is important, don't you think? To hear the whole matter.

Thanks,
Linda

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gp-P2T33L3I

[courtneyme109]

Hi Cernig,

Not so sure about the "wholesale slaughter of civilians". Luftwaffe killed more civilians in 20 minutes of staggered bombing runs over Rotterdam in 1940 than Little Satan has killed in a week plus 69 years later.

Pretty dang impressive and a testament to the fact that democracies value life and those values xfer to their militaries with intelligent weaponry, night vision gear and battlefield meds.

Especially impressive since HAMAS routinely fires off missiles and mortors from innocent civilian rich environs like apartments, mosques and schools, uses hospitals as hide-outs and enjoys innocent, intelligent human shielding.

Also, HAMAS' own website's obit for the evil Dr Rayyan
boasted that he was the inventor of the human shield

"It was Dr. Rayyan, who took the initiative, two years ago, to protect homes against Israeli occupation air strikes by forming human shields which succeeded in stopping this practice by the Israeli occupation, where they used to phone the occupier of the home and warn him to evacuate it in ten minutes because the home is going to be bombed."

http://www.palestine-info.co.uk/en/default.aspx?xyz=U6Qq7k%2bcOd87MDI46m9rUxJEpMO%2bi1s7Yq6KZIGGwbWYV2rCr8sDPfT09JJfk1Si4RYItLZreBqI1a9UBVMOMlchh04motfpJGidgMe2%2bIFkNzDtMSrJW8APH1WOApepXMR2VgVN3BE%3d

Innocent civilians dying in the Strip are many things. Wholesale slaughter is NOT one of them.

[Linda]

I am not sure if this will copy...but I will try. If it doesn't and someone is interested in the "Mail's" reporting of the violence in London I have it and you can contact me.

Linda

(Muslim) Protesters clash with police as 100,000 strong London Gaza demo descends into violence
By Daily Mail Reporter
Last updated at 8:25 PM on 10th January 2009
Violent clashes occurred between police and around 20,000 protesters outside the Israeli Embassy in London - with an estimated 100,000 protesters airing their views around the city.
Windows were smashed and policemen were injured - with one officer knocked unconscious in the running battles and two requiring treatment for facial injuries.
The protesters - mainly young men - knocked down barriers threw missiles including eggs, red paint, sticks and shoes as 300 officers in full riot gear tried to maintain the peace.

Flags are burnt as the protesters make their feelings known during the riots
He added: 'A hard core of demonstrators are undermining the cause of the vast majority of people on this demonstration, who are law abiding citizens wishing to protest peacefully.'

More...Israel drops leaflets over Gaza warning civilians of 'escalation' in violence.

Note: unfortunately the photos didn't copy. Too bad. They tell the true story.

[Christian G.]

The Hamas proposal may have been discussed here at the Israeli cabinet meeting.

[Peter G.]

The phrase "an eye for an eye" which actually derives from the far more more ancient Code of Hammnurabi is not savage at all. In context it means the punishment should be proportional to the crime. I agree wholeheartedly with Cernig and many other posters that the current incursion into Gaza has gone far beyond proportionality. I will disagree with only one point and that is the throwaway line regarding the school strike: "if its' a mistake". On some level it surely must be. Whether it was a mistake of intelligence, policy or even just fire control it cannot have any but adverse consequences for Israel. I doubt very much it was a policy mistake. There was absolutely nothing to be gained in any way from this egregious bit of targeting. Viewed simply from a propaganda perspective shelling a school would negate the rather impressive media framing that the pro-Israel side has been engaged in. Given the scale of the conflict something like this was inevitable. It makes me wonder why Hamas bothers to launch their rockets so randomly. If they are "lucky" enough to score a similar hit on an Israeli target (statistically less likely but if you launch enough rockets it'll happen)) then what will they have gained?

[Linda]

I ran across this too at OneNewsNow.
Linda

Former terrorist says West ignoring real Hamas agenda
Chad Groening - OneNewsNow - 1/10/2009 4:15:00 AM
A former Palestinian terrorist says the West continues to pursue a failed idea that somehow terrorism against Israel will stop when the Palestinians get their own homeland.

Walid Shoebat is a former member of the Palestine Liberation Organization and a convert to Christianity. He now runs the Walid Shoebat Foundation, which is an organization that cries out for the justice of Israel and the Jewish people. Shoebat, author of the recently published God's War on Terror: Islam, Prophecy and the Bible, believes the recent terrorist rocket attacks by Hamas have nothing to do with wanting a Palestinian homeland.

"The core issue is not an issue of land whatsoever. It's an issue of wiping the state of Israel out. If you look at even suicide bombing -- historically, if you look from 1980 until 2003, let's say -- 224 suicide bombings out of 300 existed in Islamic countries with no occupation whatsoever," he notes. "So it's not simply the desire to create a Palestinian state. It is the desire to destroy the Jewish state, and that's what we see."

Shoebat contends this effort is being carried out by a huge network of Islamic enemies. "It's a rebel network involved between Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran, Syria. Many Islamic countries are involved in this," he points out. "Saudi Arabia was funding...this kind of thing. So it's a huge network that we're dealing with."

[Steve Hynd]

Linda, see the link in the post about the Irgun.

Your You-tube comes from World News Daily - aka WngNutDaily. The site is ulta-rightwing. The Daily Mail is a rightwing British tabloid. American Family News Network (One News Now) comprises some of the worst elements of wingnut rightwing religious crazidom. Are you intending to pass any of it as unbiased coverage?

Courtney, you just Godwinned yourself. I'm not suggesting Israel is on the scale of the Nazis, as I'm sure you well know. There's still plenty of room for committing atrocities without hitting that low a bar.

Regards, C

[Steve Hynd]

Truth101, I'm not your "friend". I'm sure you're aware I was referring to Israel governing Palestine as an occupying power, rather than how it treats its own citizens. You're just trying to argue in bad faith.

[Linda]

Dear Cernig,

Don't you think 'name calling'(World News Daily - aka WngNutDaily) shows a lack of maturity? I am just curious…are you Jewish? And as this is your blog…I don’t want to be critical. It is not my style… :)
Thanks,
Linda

[Peter G.]

Hi Cernig
Regarding your update:in effect Hamas was asking for unrestricted access to Israel and given the number of suicide bombings in the past this was an unlikely to be well received by the Israelis. Nor does it explain why Hamas would fire rockets at those very checkpoints when they were opened to allow through humanitarian aid as they did on Dec 26 of last year.Hamas themselves may have disavowed the use of suicide bombers but that doesn't mean other parties would not take advantage of the access that Hamas was seeking.

[Steve Hynd]

Peter, I'm fairly sure you've argued against excessive lockdown as an anti-terror tactic when talking about the US (patriot act, FISA, border control etc.). The UK didn't close travel from Northern Ireland during the "Troubles" either.

Regards, C

[Steve Hynd]

Linda, "WingNut Daily" is a well-known nickname and richly deserved as a shorthand descriptor of an extremely far-right website with no journalistic integrity. It's no more immature than "moonbat" used widely by rightwingers to describe many very-left websites - and that doesn't bother me in the least. (Although idiots who toss around the epithet "nihilist" like its going out of fashion probably need therapy and pity.)

No, I'm not Jewish - or Muslim either. Why should it make a difference? Sum res cogitans.

Regards, C

[Linda]

Cernig,

I guess just I travel in the wrong circles. I have never used "moonbat" or know of anyone who does. I haven't the faintest what it means. I also don't throw around the word "hihilist".

Nihilist
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Nihilist can refer to

a person who believes human existence has no objective meaning, purpose, or intrinsic value. See nihilism:

But I will say that I can not imagine anyone believing that "human existence has no objective meaning, purpose or value."

I asked you if you were Jewish because you were commenting (giving an analysis of Israel) as if it was very important to you.

with kind thoughts,
Linda

[Peter G.]

And you'd be right. An excessive lockdown that severely limits economic activity never mind humanitarian aid is wrong. I was merely offering an opinion about what the Israeli likely take on the subject might be.