Carry On Up The Khyber

By Cernig

Pakistan recently closed the Khyber Pass, lifeline for US and allied forces in Afghanistan, so that it could supposedly rid the Khyber Pass route of militants who have carried out high profile attacks on supply convoys. Three days later the pass was opened again, with Pakistan saying "mission accomplished".

Apparently not. Last week a bunch of local Pakistani villagers blocked the Pass for over a day with their own cars in protest at their government's heavy hand. Now, the Pakistani military has closed the pass again.

The attack by suspected insurgents that killed one soldier and wounded 14 near the famed Khyber Pass caused yet another temporary closing of the supply route to Afghanistan, adding urgency to efforts to secure alternative supply lines as about 30,000 more U.S. troops head to Afghanistan this year.

Afghan-based U.S. and NATO forces get up to 75 percent of their supplies via routes from Pakistan. The trucks that carry the fuel, food and other goods face constant threats of violence, while growing militant activity has led to attacks on terminals in the nearby city of Peshawar.

... A daylong curfew was imposed while security forces hunted down militants in neighboring Khugi Khel area. Ten were eventually arrested, Mahmood said, and the curfew was lifted. The Khyber Pass was reopened in the early afternoon, Mahmood said.

U.S. and NATO officials insist the militant activity so far has had a minimal impact on their operations. Still, NATO acknowledges other routes, possibly through Central Asia, are under consideration.

Best of luck with that Central Asian route - Kyrgystan is getting ready to close the US airbase there, the only one of any size in the region, following Russian pressure. I bet Obama's wishing he hadn't followed quite so closely on the heels of McCain and his neocon fraternity pals in blaming Russia for starting a shooting match Georgia actually begun.

The Khyber pass is the only viable supply route to Afghanistan that doesn't go along the nicy, shiny new road, built in part with Indian money, that runs from Iran's ports to the flourishing city of Herat.  The reason the Indian's funded the road (and a coming rail link) is that they had no trust Pakistan would refrain from playing games with access to the Khyber Pass. Right now, Pakistan is at least playing a bad game of whack-a-mole. At worst, it's playing "lets remind the gorah we have them by the balls no matter how much surging they do."

Update: Petraeus says he has agreed deals for a Northern supply route although by the context of his words any guarantees he got may precede Russian spoilers in the region hinted at by Kyrgyzstan threatening closure of the US base there. Other officials have apparently spoken off record and and don't mention Kyrgyzstan - "Russia through Kazakhstan and on through Uzbekistan using trucks and trains" or "via Azerbaijan across the Caspian Sea to the Kazakh port of Aktau and then through Uzbekistan" - but Russian goodwill wouls still be essential.

This is good news for Kabulis. A friend on a discussion group - one with extensive experience in Afghanistan - tells me that Afghan farming cannot currently support the capital on its own so as it stands if the Khyber Pass was to be closed for a prolonged period then Kabulis would starve. That's currently a pretty huge bargaining chip for Pakistan to be holding.