2010 Pennsylvania Senate clearing up

By Fester:

With the announcement that Chris Matthews will not be running for the Democratic nomination for the 2010 Pennsylvania Senate seat currently held by Republican Arlen Specter, the political game of musical chairs both clears up and slows down for the next three to five months.  The first impact is that quite a few liberals (myself included) may actually give a damn about the race now, but in this state, that is a minor impact as liberals are a good base and ground game, but significantly more is needed. 

I don't expect to see any major candidates such as current Congresscritters, county executives or state-wide elected officials to announce their runs until at least the middle of the spring.  They will be waiting to see which way labor will jump.  The unions are waiting to see which way Specter will vote on the Employee Free Choice Act.  If Specter votes for it on both the final vote and any veto point cloture votes, then most of the top tier Democrats such as Murphy and Schwartz will opt out of the race. If Specter votes against the EFCA or helps to kill it at a veto point because he fears a conservative primary challenge, then we should expect a free for all Democratic primary.

Labor is the key here as they have traditionally supported Specter as he is their 'good' Republican in the Senate who is not an automatic Southern style union basher.  The major unions either sat out the 2004 race or endorsed Specter over Democrat Hoeffl.  So if the unions make noises that they are staying neutral or supporting Specter, the Democratic candidates have a much harder time assembling both their ground game and a viable winning coalition. 

However if the unions come out against Specter and do so fairly early on, it should be one hell of a fun year as the Senate primary is in the early spring of 2010. 

Comments

[farside268]

It's nice to see you're back to writing. I guess the novelty has already worn off your recent New Year's gift.

[fester]

Nope, she was still asleep, and I already had my coffee for the morning.

Fester