Iran to Obama - Faster, Please!

By Cernig

Our friend Gareth Porter of IPS News has been talking to a wide variety of Iranian leadership figures, both hardliners and more moderate, and the consensus appears to be that Obama should strike while the iron is hot in opening negotiations - and cut out the middleman.

In light of the Iranian presidential election coming in mid-2009 and the U.S. distaste for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, President-elect Barack Obama is being advised to avoid any communication with Tehran until after Iranians vote next June.

But Iranian political analysts who are familiar with the thinking of both Ahmadinejad and Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, believe it would be a serious mistake for Obama to take no action until after the election.

The political editor of the conservative newspaper Resalat, Amir Mohebbian, and political analyst Saeed Laylaz, who has been a critic of government economic policy, both told IPS in interviews that Obama should communicate directly with Khamenei, who they say will make the ultimate decisions regarding relations with the United States.

"My advice to Obama's team is to start negotiations immediately," said Laylaz. Failing to do so, he said, would be to repeat "the same mistake made by George W. Bush."

...Laylaz said there was "no doubt" that the Supreme Leader is fully supportive of Ahmadinejad's effort to draw the Obama administration into negotiations and that the president had a "green light" to write a letter of congratulations to Obama after his election.

Mohebbian, who has had close ties to Ahmadinejad in the past but has become a critic of the president more recently, agreed that U.S. strategy should be focused on Supreme Leader Khamenei. He said Ahmadinejad would be attacked, at least by conservatives, if he sought to negotiate with the United States. If "the leader" indicated that he wants such negotiations, however, nobody will attack the decision, according to Mohebbian.

Iranians who spoke to Gareth were well aware that such a move would undercut Ahmainejad's authority - and his fearmongering - ahead of next year's elections, where they hold high hopes for a reformist/moderate resurgence under former President Mohammad Khatami.

Ahmadinejad's moderate and reformist opponents, as well as some conservative critics, believe Ahmadinejad will be politically vulnerable because of the parlous state of the economy and his own mismanagement of it. Mohebbian, who has supported Ahmadinejad in the past but is now looking for a different conservative standard-bearer in the election, said the president had "increased the expectations of people" based on "a good oil price".

Now that oil prices have plunged below 50 dollars a barrel and are expected to stay there for months, Mohebbian said, "The gap between expectations and reality creates insurgency."

...Rafsanjani adviser Atrianfar said he believes Ahmadinejad will be vulnerable on the economy because he has systematically lied about the actual levels of exports, jobs and inflation.

Former Vice President Abtahi said the issue of international sanctions and the tensions underlying them will be central in the election, and expressed confidence that "people will support a candidate who can reduce such tensions". Reformist and moderate conservative critics of Ahmadinejad have repeatedly attacked him for what they describe as diplomatic blunders that have led to tougher economic sanctions against Iran by the West.

And Iranians also are solidly of the view that Bush's policies have aided Ahmadinejad.

Abtahi concedes that Ahmadinejad's ultra-nationalist line appeals to his political base outside the large cities and that a U.S. demand for a complete end to uranium enrichment only plays into Ahmadinejad's hands politically. "From this perspective you can consider [such a U.S. demand] a great help to Ahmadinejad," said Abtahi.

U.S. policies that were seen as openly hostile toward Iran boosted the extreme conservative supporters in the first electoral test since Ahmadinejad become president, according to Abtahi. He cites the George W. Bush administration's efforts to rally Arab regimes in the region against Iran in the weeks before the March 2008 parliamentary elections. "The conservative papers took advantage of that," he recalled, "and Bush's policy negatively affected Iranian parliamentary elections."

There's lots to think about in the articles at both links above. Gareth has done some important work here, by providing some real reporting on insider attitudes instead of the usual "If I were an Iranian" fluff that substitutes for evidence in most Western debate about Iran's intentions and motives. Here's hoping someone in the Obama camp is reading.