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December 03, 2008

Follow-up on ISAF logistics

By Fester:

This is a follow-up from my post yesterday concerning potential Pakistani responses to Indian mobilization.  I actually did some research on the subject.  First, the New York Times on the 30th shows that Pakistan's reaction to an Indian mobilization would be a reinforcement of the frontiers from forces that are currently on internal security missions or counter-insurgency missions along the NATO/ISAF supply lines:

Pakistani security officials warned that they were preparing to move troops toward the border if need be. The security officials, speaking at a press briefing in which the ground rules prohibited identifying them by name, said that if the situation worsened, troops stationed in western Pakistan could be moved within 72 hours. “We’re ready for any contingency,” one security official said. The security officials also noted that such a move would be likely to upset the United States, because it would mean resources were being moved away from the fight against Islamic militants in the western areas bordering Afghanistan.

Secondly, a very informed reader pointed me in the direction of some Indian press speculation/reporting on a probable Pakistani response to a probable Indian response:   

Pakistan may relocate around 100,000 military personnel from its restive border area with Afghanistan if there is an escalation in tension with India, which has hinted at the involvement of Pakistani elements in the Mumbai carnage, a media report said today.

Private channel Geo News reported that Pakistan's military and intelligence sources told a select group of journalists today that NATO and American command had been told that Islamabad would be forced to relocate its military from the borders with Afghanistan if there is escalation in tension with India, where nearly 200 people were killed in the multiple terror attacks on the Indian financial capital.

'These sources have said NATO and the US command have been told that Pakistan would not be able to concentrate on the war on terror and against militants around the Afghanistan border as defending its borders with India was far more important,' Geo News quoted senior Pakistani journalist Hamid Mir as saying.


Both papers are reporting the same basic story.  Pakistan's military and civilian elite consider the NATO/ISAF support mission to be a distinctly secondary mission and threat compared to the historical and ingrained threat that is India.  Therefore they are willing to rupture that relationship in order to mobilize and deploy against a traditional threat from India. 

http://www.newshoggers.com/blog/2008/12/followup-on-isaf-logistics.html

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