Creating Strategic Ambiguity Over Obama's Iran Policy

By Cernig

Did anyone think that the people who managed to slant US analysis so badly that it was sure there were WMDs in Iraq would give up easily on agitating for their next war of choice, Iran? In their last months with free run of the corridors of power, the necons and Cheneyites are doing their best to torpedo Obama's diplomatic route for Iran, something Democratic hawks and AIPACers are only too happy to aid them in.

For over a year now, their aim has been to create "strategic ambiguity" - deliberately muddying the waters about Israeli and American intentions so as to pressure Iran in its negotiations with the West by ensuring it fears an attack if it doesn't play ball. D.C. hawks have gotten on board to such an extent that it is already an accepted fact among the Very Serious Person set that Obama's idea of negotiation without preconditions will get exactly one shot, will fail, and then the bombs will begin to fall.

There's more of the same in Haaretz this Thursday, reporting a planted story that Obama will extend the U.S. nuclear umbrella to Israel, which has plenty of nukes itself. The story is sourced to a single someone "close to the new administration". Whether that source is someone like Dennis Ross, Susan Rice or Tony Lake - all of whom have been cozy with the "real men go to Tehran" faction recently - or actually outside Obama's nascent administration looking in, even perhaps a part of the Bush team's transition liason, is unclear. Haaretz might even be the target of deliberate disinformation or making the story up out of whole cloth in a way that can't be proven. But one of those Real Men, Jim Geraghty, is beside himself with glee that the idea was first put out there by another Manly Man, Charles Krauthammer, back in April.

When he proposed it, liberals declared this idea was evidence that Krauthammer is insane. When Hillary Clinton echoed the proposal, Keith Olbermann said it was "far further to the right than John McCain. This may be far further to the right than the Bush administration policy about the Middle East, which you didn't think was physically possible." Rachel Maddow said it was "hard to imagine a conception of American interests broad enough to make this a prudent promise to make to the world, particularly to this volatile part of the world."

Hear that, netroots? From Krauthammer's column to Obama administration policy. Glad you put all that effort into beating McCain, huh?

The proposal is, of course, insane and idiotic, as Haaretz notes even some in the Bush administration admit.

A senior Bush administration source said that the proposal for an American nuclear umbrella for Israel was ridiculous and lacked credibility. "Who will convince the citizen in Kansas that the U.S. needs to get mixed up in a nuclear war because Haifa was bombed? And what is the point of an American response, after Israel's cities are destroyed in an Iranian nuclear strike?"

But that's hardly the point. Strategic ambiguity is, and all that is required there is that the Iranian leadership be unsure whether the US or Israel will launch a preventative attack to short-circuit any debate. In making that strategic ambiguity even remotely credible, one of the major stumbling blocks is the last US National Intelligence Estimate on Iran. It said Iran hadn't had a nuclear program since 2003, which makes all the talk about nuclear umbrellas and pre-emptive attacks redundant.

There's been a lot of ignoring of the NIE going on, even by Obama, but eventually it's got to be dealt with and another one of the usual suspects, Edward Jay Epstein, tried exactly that in an International Herald Tribune op-ed Wednesday. Why we should be listening to someone who led the charge on pushing Mohammed Atta's fictitious meeting with Iraqi intel and doesn't think Perestroika was real is anyone's guess, but there he is pushing a very slanted interpretation of the Laptop Of Death and uttering falsehoods like "Iran had no known space program." That'll confuse the hell out of all the arms control wonks debating whether Iran's latest space rocket test was two or three stage, liquid or solid fuelled.

Unfortunately for Epstein and Co.,the intel community is sticking by its NIE:

The nation's just-retired No. 2 intelligence official Tuesday defended a controversial year-old estimate on Iran, saying he stood by its conclusion that Iran suspended a nuclear-weapons program in 2003.

Thomas Fingar, who stepped down Dec. 1 from the post of deputy director of national intelligence and as chairman of the National Intelligence Council, said he also believed that Iran has not diverted low-enriched uranium produced at a facility at Natanz, 160 miles south of Tehran, to weapons use.

"I still stand by the judgments in that estimate," Mr. Fingar told a small group of reporters, referring to the November 2007 report. "We've had other teams look at this. Everyone who has, has affirmed the judgments we made."

Oh dear. It remains to be seen how long the Serious People and Obama will be able to deny the NIE by ignoring it, but for now the hawkish strategy is clear: center ambiguity around the Clinton camp and use it to pressure both Iran and Obama. At the best, they change Obama's stated policy to one of their own and get the bonus of crowing about U-turns. At worst, as Gareth Porter pointed out, the Iranians refuse to trust any Obama initiative that has a Clintonite in it. Twofer!

Comments

[matteo]

SISMI AND SISDE (ITALIAN INTELLIGENCE) SPY ON IRANIAN GOVERNMENT

"The Italian government has never been in hostile actions against the Iranian government". Is the laconic communiqué of the Italian Government of 11 June 2008.

http://www.governo.it/GovernoInforma/Comunicati/dettaglio.asp?d=39289

("Iran: Government, false allegations, never hostile actions")

The Italian government is telling so many lies? See also you as SISMI (Military Secret Service) spy in Italy companies controlled by the Iranian government. Until now (and until it is censored again) you can still do it on the site:

http://piemonte.indymedia.org/article/3566


In this site is published a confidential letter sent to the President of Italian Republic and 2 Directors of the Services Intelligence (SISMI and Sisde) from a 007 called Altana Peter. In this confidential letter refers to assignments (on behalf of SISMI) for intelligence activities against the Social Centers and all companies controlled by the Iranian government living in Italy (the secret service agent writes the name of the iranian company Nisco, IRASCO, IRITEC, IRISA, TEEN TRANSPORT, IRAN AIR, etc etc).

In this embarrassing context, the Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini moved quickly to say that Italy considers Iran as a reliable partner for the Afghan issue (the state of Iran by "rogue state" has suddenly become reliable?).

NOTE THAT THE IRANIAN ARE NOT AS STUPID AS THEN WE BELIEVE !!

All the best for the Year 1388

May it be a happy, healthy, prosperous and peaceful year for you, your family, for SISMI, for Sisde, for Mr. Nicolò Pollari, for Mr. Pietro Altana, for Mr. Renato Raso, for Mr. Franco Frattini, for Mr. Silvio Berlusconi, for all italians.

As-salam ‘alayk/kum, wa as-salam ‘alayk/kum wa rahmatu Allah wa barakatuhuwa as-salam ‘alayk/kum wa rahmatu Allah wa barakatuhu.

Related link: http://piemonte.indymedia.org/article/4294

[david]

SISMI and IRANIANS - First are spying and then he tends his hand.

SISMI (Italian Military Secret Service) and IRANIANS - First Iranians are spying and then he tends his hand.

Those of SISMI Machiavellian - now Aise - to dust the strategy of "stick and carrot '

After you spread the news that SISMI and SISDE spying for the Iranians the Italian government is trying to correct the shot.

Links (*):

http://piemonte.indymedia.org/article/3566

http://piemonte.indymedia.org/article/4294

Objective: To escape from this embarrassing spy story! How? With the first theatrical performance, under the guise of editorial lie (but soon take other "sympathy" and numerous other "funny things" media desk study).

Is for this purpose, the Gian Guido Folloni, president of an enigmatic agency ISIAMED - Istituto Italiano per l'Asia e il Mediterraneo. Folloni is an old acquaintance of SISMI. At the time of the Rais of Baghdad, Saddam Hussein his name circulated alongside international arms - traffickers the level of Augusto Giangrandi e Carlos Remigio Cardoen - as among the beneficiaries of generous supplies of Iraqi crude oil.

The well-informed people claim that through the good offices of Sismi was able to come out free from the investigation "Oil for Food".

What he says Gian Guido Follonica the Iranians? This explains himself in a letter circulated amongst right (which has an object that is an entire program):

"Reading the Iranian revolution in Rome."

Link:

http://piemonte.indymedia.org/article/5025


Spying and flatter. "The stick and carrot".

Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini, however (conservatively) would prefer not to meet the President of Iran.

It is better to postpone the meeting. It is better to be cautious ...