Anti-Lieberman straterergizing

By Fester:

Steve Benen at Political Animal has the run-down on Lieberman's current political status and it is the same as it has been for the past three years --- loved by the elites of both parties as a useful tool and despised by a good chunk of a relevant electorate (in '06 it was the Democratic Primary electorate, and now, it is the state of Connecicutt)

A new Quinnipiac poll shows Lieberman's approval rating tanking after voters watched their independent senator act like a Republican attack dog for the better part of 2008.

Lieberman ... had the approval of 38 percent and the disapproval of 54 percent of voters. .

The rating was the worst of any senator in a Quinnipiac poll since Robert Torricelli of New Jersey was forced to resign in 2002..

Jed added, "The Q-Poll's numbers reflect Lieberman's abysmal showing in last month's Research 2000 poll conducted for Daily Kos, which showed Lieberman with a 36/61 approval rating. In that poll, 48% said they would definitely vote to replace Lieberman, and another 18% said they'd consider replacing him.".

Of course, Lieberman won't seek re-election again until 2012, so he'll have quite a bit of time to impress his voters -- if he wants to. .

So how will this play out? Elite protection networks will seek to validate Lieberman as a visionary statesman while shoveling massive amounts of pork towards the Nutmeg state. Democrats won't obstruct this pork shoveling as he is one of them, and if they stood up for anything that vaguely resemble self-interest, he might say more mean things about them on Fox. Republicans won't obstruct as he is a key gatekeeper and leverage point that they have in a time of less power and access than they are used to. Additionally, he will continue to say mean things about Democrats on Fox.

The dominant strategy for Republicans will see them nominate a thrice convicted embezzler with a taste for publicly blowing goats (I don't know who that lucky individual is yet....) The dominant strategy for national Democratic party officials will be to back Lieberman as he is a 'loyal' Independent Democrat who has only committed a few minor faux pas and pisses off the dirty f*cking hippies as a happy side benefit. A two way race between Odius Republican and Senator Droopy is the dominant major party strategy. They’ll push for the local Democratic party committees to allow Lieberman to give up his CT for Lieb. party membership and run as the Democratic nominee.

So anyone who dislikes Lieberman enough to vote against him will either have to vote for Odious Republican (who is probably worse on the relevant scales that have pissed people off concerning Lieberman) or find a third alternative. My guess is that the CT Dem. Party will see a massive internal feud as the local committees will have to decide whether or not Lieberman will run in the Democratic primary and how the rules can be twisted to keep any viable challenger out of contention. My bet is enough arms are twisted, incentives are laid out, and threats on the viability of future political careers that Lieberman will be running as the ‘Democratic’ incumbent in the primary.

I also think that the arm twisting process will keep any currently elected Democrats from making a run at Lieberman within the Democratic Party. The incentives don’t line up for them as between Dodd and Lieberman, it is highly unlikely that they will both replicate Robert Byrd’s tenure or lifespan. So the dominant option for people who don’t like Lieberman will be a third party candidate as the Democratic Party will presumably do their best to close the primary process to any viable alternative challenger, and the Republicans are a combination of powerlessness and the anti-thesis of what most of Lieberman opponents want to accomplish.