Post Election Thoughts

By Ron Beasley

While the election of the first black president is significant this election is also a reminder that race as an issue is still alive in the US.  Ronald Brownstein reminds us that this election was not about Barack Obama but about George W. Bush.

It detracts nothing from Barack Obama's achievement to note that his historic electoral success rests atop the epic political failure of George W. Bush. If Obama is shrewd enough, there's a lesson for the new president in the failure of the old one.

Bush and his chief political strategist, Karl Rove, dreamed of cementing a lasting Republican electoral majority. Instead, Bush has left his party in rubble.

The 2008 election represented a final grade on Bush's bruising and polarizing political strategy. To a degree unmatched by modern presidents, Bush governed more by mobilizing his base than by reaching out to voters and interests beyond it. His legislative strategy centered on minimizing dissent among congressional Republicans; his electoral strategy revolved around maximizing his vote among Republicans and conservative independents. On both fronts, his guiding principle was deepen, not broaden.

Through Bush's first term, that approach generated undeniable successes. The congressional Republican majority, demonstrating levels of party unity unequaled since around 1900, passed key elements of his agenda. A skillfully engineered surge in Republican turnout powered his re-election and GOP congressional gains in 2002 and 2004.

But through Bush's second term, this insular strategy grew unsustainable. By targeting so many of his policies toward the priorities of his conservative base, Bush ignited volcanic opposition from Democratic voters and steadily alienated independents. Because he had done so little to court voters beyond his ardent core, he lacked a well of good will to draw on when events turned against him, first with Katrina and Iraq, later with the economy. His disapproval rating soared to heights unsurpassed in modern polling.

That ferocious dissatisfaction fueled the Democratic recapture of Congress in 2006 by stampeding independent voters in their direction. Discontent with Bush again provided a huge tailwind for Democrats this week. Exit polls showed that a breathtaking 71% of voters Tuesday disapproved of Bush's performance. Two-thirds of them voted for Obama. That in itself effectively sealed the election against John McCain.

John McCain spent a lot of time reminding us that he was not George W. Bush but what he never said what he would do differently.  Only two thirds of those who didn't approve of Bush voted for Obama.  My guess is that if Obama had been white he would have won by 15% not 7%. 

Greatness

So what will the Obama presidency be like.  The opportunity for "greatness"  is thrust on people.  George W. Bush had the opportunity on 911 and we know how that worked out.  Bush and his administration chose greed and power over greatness which resulted in Obama's opportunity.  As little as a year ago I was referring to Obama as an empty suit - I was wrong.  He has both the opportunity and the personality and intellect to be "great".