Heaping on the Foreign Policy Plate

by anderson

Mere days after Russian president Dmitri Medvedev rattled post-election sabres on missile defense, a clear sign that he intended to push Russia's concerns to the front of an Obama agenda, Medvedev has hailed the opening of a new General Motors plant near St. Petersburg. Obverse to the open diplomatic hostility recently on display since the Georgian war, the new plant signifies growing economic ties between the US and Russia and Medvedev praised GM for living up to their agreement despite the worsening economic outlook for the company.

"General Motors has done everything to carry out the responsibilities it took upon itself," Medvedev said at the ceremony, adding that it was an ideal example of economic cooperation between Russia and the United States.

The U.S. automotive giant has pushed ahead with expansion plans in Russia even as the global financial crisis cut demand and local car makers slash production.

Medvedev also called the ceremony a symbol of Russia's resilience in the face of the crisis.

"We are witnessing a project completed in spite of the financial problems which the world is facing today…"

Which perhaps indicates -- I'm speculating wildly here -- that GM might seek some financial relief from Moscow since the Bush administration has so far rebuffed a request for $10 billion in aid to grease the wheels of a merger with Chrysler, despite the already agreed $25 billion bailout measure. If merger is still on the minds of auto makers in Detroit, it seems doubtful that Moscow can or would help, both from a financial and a political perspective; I doubt Congress would approve a merger in the American automotive industry financed by Russia. That would look entirely unseemly. And Russia is in no great position to offer such help, as that country is suffering financial fallout effects as bad or worse than almost anywhere else.

But such fiscal maneuvering is probably unlikely. Plant construction began months ago, long before the shake down of Wall Street began. What the new GM plant does indicate is precisely what Medvedev said it did: the economic ties between the US and Russia are close, and the US should no more consider Russia an enemy than any other large economy

Of course, that reality does not well serve the purposes of Washington's foreign policy establishment and, by extension, its military industrial complex, which constantly seeks enemies abroad to justify a broad spectrum of weapons systems and other defense contractor boondoggles. But such cooperation could be used by Obama to indicate that Russia is an economic partner, not a threatening adversary.

I say "could be" because, in all likelihood, it won't be. Such radical notions do not easily go down the raspy throats of the Beltway consensus crowd, especially one that is looking for any and all ways to continue justifying a $600 billion Pentagon budget. And if Obama has demonstrated anything with his klatch of foreign policy advisors, which has included the likes of life-long Russophobe Zbigniew Brzezinski (who still thinks his advice a "great success" to fund the Afghanistan proxy war that saw a million people killed), it is that he is as much a part of the consensus on US foreign policy as anyone. Nonetheless, Obama should not be so easily dissuaded from casting off the shackles of outdated thinking on Russia and pursue overtures of cooperation with Russia. After all, we and Europe are doing a tremendous amount of business with them.

Though it seemed the new administration might be the target of Medvedev's post-election announcement -- that Russia would deploy short range missiles directed at Poland in direct retaliation for the missile shield agreement -- weirdly enough, the extant Bush administration issued forth new proposals to Moscow, hoping, it would seem, to assuage the Kremlin's concerns about the missile defense installation.

Russia on Friday received new proposals from the United States to reduce nuclear arms and provide greater access to the Bush administration’s planned missile defense system, as leaders in Washington moved to calm tensions between the two nations.

The new American proposals, reported earlier in the Wall Street Journal, would allow Russian military officials to inspect the American installations. Washington has also proposed reducing stockpiles of nuclear warheads in both countries, as well as long-range nuclear weapons.

After embarking on a policy path that seemed designed to heighten international tension for the incoming administration, that the Bush administration is making some small effort toward Moscow's concerns appears strange indeed. It won't work, of course -- Moscow understandably does not want American missile bases next door -- and this may simply be the White House's attempt to look reasonable, knowing full well that the proposals will be rejected, that the entire missile defense effort must be dumped according to Moscow. Obama should scrap the whole notion as worthless, unnecessarily aggravating and unworkable; a project that doesn't work to prevent a threat that does not exist. Unfortunately, that is what is known as "perfect pork" in Washington: billions of dollars ostensibly for national security on a project that won't ever need to actually do anything.

Meanwhile, down in the Caucasus, protesting President Mikhail Saakashvili never gets tired, as Georgia's opposition parties have decided the time is also ripe to stage protests demanding actual free and fair elections. They do so on the anniversary of Saakashvili's rubber bullet crackdown on anti-governmen protests last year.

"We are starting a new wave of civil confrontation, and we will not give up until new elections are called," opposition leader Kakha Kukava said.

While the near target of the promised protests is clearly Saakashvili, the far target should be viewed as the new Obama administration and it comes with the implicit requirement that Washington discontinue support for Saakashvili and his anti-democratic tendencies. Of course, backing away from Saakashvili will be far easier for Obama now that mainstream American media are reporting on the evidence of Georgian aggression and war crimes.

These developments and more -- much more -- will be waiting for Obama on his first day in the White House. Considering their role in instigating these and the vast litany of other problems Obama will face, it seems highly unlikely that the Bush administration will make much of an effort to reduce these many self-induced frictions. Obama surely has his plate full. I hope he has a strong appetite.

[p.s. I never considered this before now, but how pleasantly refreshing and deliciously different it is to write the phrase "Obama administration." I think we can all agree we would like that to remain so.]