2016's Biden's Cheney Problem

By Fester

Let us assume that Barack Obama and Joe Biden win on Tuesday.  I think that is becoming extraordinarily likely.  This will produce one hell of an interesting Repubilcan primary in 2012 as there are multiple divided power blocs, but also a very divided Democratic primary cycle in 2016 as there will be no natural successor.  Joe Biden will suffer from the Cheney problem.  He'll be too old to credibly run or threaten to run for the 2016 term.  And this has caused several problems for the GOP in this cycle as there was no one to coalesce around and opposition to that coalitin to created an anti-Cheney Republican.  The 2008 Democratic campaign was Clinton v. Anti-Clinton, the 2004 Democratic primary was Dean v. anti-Dean where clear choices were made.  The 2008 GOP campaign was not that guy, hell no to the infidel, stay away from the drag queen, let's go with Abe Simpson....

Just something to think about in a couple of years if there is any specualtion that Biden won't run for VP in 2012 as that would be a natural point for a successor to be annointed.

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Comments

[Richard Hershberger]

The "natural successor" model often doesn't apply: to state the obvious, no one had heard of Barack Obama eight years ago. My guess is that the Democratic nominee in 2016 will be somebody completely off the radar today. For that matter, the same is likely true of the Republican nominee in 2016, especially is Palin gets the nomination in 2012.

[max]

biden is an ego maniac. at 73, i'm sure he will think he can still run at least for one term. reagan won at 73, mccain and dole lost at 72, and 73 respectively. biden is in good health and can still talk a mile a minute. if he stays fit he will fun, if only as a tribute to his massive ego.

clinton too.