Pre-Debate Prediction

By BJ

In a word: Anti-climatic.

I honestly don't know how the expectations game is going to work for Palin. On the one hand, her interview segments with Couric have driven expectations of her down so far that clearing them should be as difficult as a high jump over a garter snake. But on the other hand, there have been a spate of stories over the last few days pumping up her abilities as a debater. I would assume the former will outweigh the latter on the expectations game, but as another commentator noted recently, there is still a minimum bar people expect a VP candidate to meet, and it is as yet unknown if Palin can approach that bar with just one half-decent debate performance.

It probably does say something that I can't find anybody expecting her to be more than mildly competent tonight.

However, the real advantage for Palin, (and disadvantage for voters), is that the debate format tonight is basically designed to avoid much in the way of real answers. To summarize the Slate article linked above, the format allows for short sound-bite answers and discourages follow-ups. Palin only really got into trouble with Katie Couric because Couric would repeat questions or ask follow-ups that forced Palin to try and come with an actual answer. For the most part, she'll be able to avoid that problem for the 90 minutes this debate lasts, though there is of course still the possibility she'll make some unforced errors.

It should be noted that the time-limited answers should also help motor-mouth Biden from planting his feet in his mouth overly often as well.

Basically, the format is conductive to producing boredom, and given that up here in Canuckistan our leaders are set to bash each other over the heads tonight as well, I'll probably wind up watching that "debate" instead. (Or more likely, flip back and forth between the two while wondering how much rum I can safely consume and still show up for work in the morning. Unfortunately, I'm sure the answer isn't enough to make either debate tolerable.)

Ultimately, I'm back to where I started, the debate itself will be anti-climatic and change next to nothing, though I'm sure there will be some furious spinning from both sides to claim the contrary.

Comments

[vanderleun]

"t probably does say something that I can't find anybody expecting her to be more than mildly competent tonight."

Yes it does. It says that, after tonight, you need to get a much wider circle of acquaintances.

[BJ Bjornson]

Oh, I know there are those out there who claimed they had really high expectations for Palin, and that she somehow managed to surpass them, but I tend to discount those who are too far gone in their partisanship to look at things objectively.

In the end, things went much as I expected. Not a total disaster, but Biden clearly looked far more competent and knowledgeable. From what I can see this morning, the only people who think otherwise were already totally in the bag for her, McCain, and the Republican party. Fortunately, just convincing the base won't be enough for the Republicans this year, though it may be enough to prevent a total blowout.