Playing Craps for a Senate Seat

By Fester:

The news that Senator Stevens (R-AK) has been convicted on all seven counts of making false statements pretty much guarantees that Democrat Mark Begich will win the Alaska Senate race. It is also an example of a crappy gamble biting the GOP own ass…

Senator Stevens would always face a tough race for re-election as the Democrats recruited a good candidate, Sen. Stevens was known as corrupt as hell, and the political tide is favorable for Democrats. After he was indicted, his re-elect numbers crashed. However over the past couple of weeks, the race has closed to a slight lead for Begich in the public polling. It would be a tough win but it was vaguely plausible. 
 
However Senator Stevens pushed for a quick trial in the hopes of an acquittal. This is despite the fact that 85% of defendants who go to trial for money laundering or related crimes are convicted. If he was acquitted before the election, he stood a good chance at holding the seat. However this is only a 1:7 play which is roughly the same odds as Any Craps. 

This was an optional play for Senator Stevens, he did not have to request a fast trial. It provided the maximal pay-off but it also had the maximum regret in that he could be convicted and if convicted he was guaranteed to turn over a GOP Senate seat to a Democrat. The better strategy from a mini-max perspective would have been to push for a slow trial and discard the maximal opportunity (conviction, win the Senate election) for a mixed strategy of riding the Republican tilt of Alaska for a narrow Senate win with the contingency option after the election of either being acquitted OR being convicted but being replaced by a Republican appointed by a Republican governor.

Instead, the gamble was an all-in, low odds, maximal risk gamble which failed. 

 

Comments

[RAM]

And he insisted on the early trial knowing he was guilty. Another perfect example of the criminal mind at work. They never think they'll get caught, and when they do they think they can just bullshit their way out of it.