It's the Senate Stupid

By Ron Beasley

The Republican Party has had some good fund raising numbers the last few weeks but one has to wonder how much of that money they will be willing to throw at the sinking campaign of John and Sarah.

GOP dread: Dems could hit 60 Senate seats

The possibility that Democrats will build a muscular, 60-seat Senate majority is looking increasing plausible, with new polls showing a powerful surge for the party’s candidates in Minnesota, Kentucky and other states.

A poll out Friday shows Sen. Norm Coleman could now easily lose his Minnesota seat to comedian-turned-candidate Al Franken. A Colorado race that initially looked like a nail-biter has now broken decisively for the Democrats. A top official in the McCain camp told us Sen. Elizabeth Dole is virtually certain to lose in conservative North Carolina.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky has seen his race tighten dangerously close over the past week — and Democrats are considering moving more money into the state very soon. And there is even talk that Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss is beatable in conservative Georgia after backing the economic bailout package opposed by many voters.

“Before the economic crisis, we had a number of races moving our way,” said Matthew Miller, communications director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “But now we’re seeing Republican numbers plummet.” GOP officials largely agree.

Senate races don’t grab national attention like the White House battle does. But if these trends hold, the Senate outcome could be almost as important to Washington governance as the presidential winner will be. It takes 60 votes to pass anything through the slow-moving Senate. So the closer the Democrats get to the number, the more power they will have next year to put their stamp on the country.

One of those Senate races is right here in my State of Oregon where incumbent Gordon Smith is in the fight of his life and falling behind.  As I noted here Smith is running as fast and as far as he can from George Bush and the Republican Party.  The major daily in Oregon, The Oregonian, leans right and has always been a Smith supporter.  In a piece today even the Oregonian was only luke warm.

Smith's record and accomplishments will confront a complicated terrain of mixed signals, victories large but mainly small, ambiguous acts and outright contradictions.

Smith voted to invade Iraq, but three years later the famously reserved senator called the war "criminal" in a speech memorable both for its content and his rare display of emotion.

He's repeatedly voted in favor of huge spending bills to finance the war. Yet in 2007, Smith co-sponsored an amendment written by Democratic Sens. Carl Levin of Michigan and Jack Reed of Rhode Island that would have required bringing most troops out of Iraq within nine months. The measure failed on a 47-47 vote when only two other Republicans joined Smith.

And about that voting record, The Oregonian:

Smith's Democratic opponent, Jeff Merkley, speaker of the Oregon House, has hammered the Republican incumbent for months as a reliable proxy for the Bush administration. In ads and on the stump, Merkley says that Smith votes with Bush more than 90 percent of the time.

Yet an analysis of key votes in 2007 by the Beltway-focused National Journal shows Smith in the middle. On a scale of 100, he earned a composite conservative score of 52.8 and a liberal composite score of 47.2. Those scores make him the 46th most conservative among the Senate's 100 members and the 51st most liberal.

But that only tells part of the story.  More often than not Smith voted against his party and Bush when his vote wouldn't make any difference.  But more important you have to look at how Smith voted when and this modified chart from the Oregonian article tells the story.

Now Oregon is a blue State - George W. Bush never won here.  As you can see Smith is conservative for the four years after an election and makes a left turn a couple of years before an election.  He made a very sharp left after the Republican loses in 2006.  Smith ads are being run by his campaign, the RSCC and the Republican Party.  Although Smith was the chair of McCain's campaign until recently McCain or any other Republican have been mentioned in his ads although Barack Obama and Ted Kennedy have.  Smith had been leading until recently but his opponent, Jeff Merkley, is now leading.  I would expect the Republican Party to send more of it's cash to Gordon Smith instead of John McCain.