Afghanistan Updates

By Fester:

2 quick excerpts before I have to head to work:

From CNN, some hopeful news on Afghanistan:

Taliban leaders are holding Saudi-brokered talks with the Afghan government to end the country's bloody conflict -- and are severing their ties with al Qaeda, sources close to the historic discussions have told CNN...

According to the source, fugitive Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar -- high on the U.S. military's most-wanted list -- was not present, but his representatives were keen to stress the reclusive cleric is no longer allied to al Qaeda.

Details of the Taliban leader's split with al Qaeda have never been made public before, but the new claims confirm what another source with an intimate knowledge of the militia and Mullah Omar has told CNN in the past.

So there is a possibility that Al-Quaeda in Afghanistan/Pakistan is losing its allies like AQI did --- for being disrespectful douchebags.  It seems that AQ is capable of providing resources, money, technical expertise and organization but it has not and can not transition itself to be able to integrate and adapt to its local cultural mileau.  In business terms, it is a radicalism incubator and not an expansion/accelerator agent. 

And now some bad news from the London Times:

Brigadier Mark Carleton-Smith, the commander of 16 Air Assault Brigade, whose troops have suffered severe casualties after six months of tough fighting, will hand over to 3 Commando Brigade Royal Marines this month.

He told The Times that in his opinion, a military victory over the Taleban was “neither feasible nor supportable”.

“What we need is sufficient troops to contain the insurgency to a level where it is not a strategic threat to the longevity of the elected Government,” he said...

Brigadier Carleton-Smith admitted that it had been “a turbulent summer” but he said that the Taleban were “riven with deep fissures and fractures”.

He added: “However, the Taleban, tactically, is reasonably resilient, certainly quite dangerous and seems relatively impervious to losses. Its potency is as a force for influence.”

He indicated that the only way forward was to find a political solution that would include the Taleban. The Government of President Karzai has launched a reconciliation programme, although the hard core of Taleban commanders is thought to be implacably opposed to any compromise. Efforts are being focused on the so-called “tier-two” and “tier-three” Taleban, who are perceived to be less ideologically intransigent.

Buying out the less hardcore and respecting Pashtun nationalism/tribalism and core vital interests would probably be the way forward there.  Here, the lessons from the Anbar Awakening could be used --- respect the exisisting leadership, meet their needs and turn them against the hardcore could work.  The problem is the same, it destroys any central state legitimacy, but as a tactical/operational move, it is not a bad one.