"Success" in Iraq

By Fester:

John McCain argues that the Surge has produced magical ponies and lower levels of violence.  Besides the fact that the strategic aim of the Surge was to produce political reconciliation which has not happened, the reduction in violence has only been sufficient to bring Iraq back towards the level of violence that is common in some of the world's bloodiest conflicts and ongoing hot spots instead of being in a class of its own.  This success is extraordinarily fragile as there are massive ethnic/sectarian tensions that have not been resolved and some which are boiling towards conflict.  This may be a lull, but this is what McCain calls success:

Via Juan Cole on civilian casualties:

AP reports that Baghdad is still very dangerous despite lowered death tolls from political violence:

' Small scale bombings and shootings persist in the capital — each a reminder that the war is not over and that Baghdad remains a place where no trip is routine and residents are still guided by precautions. Most won't drive at night. Many try to avoid heavily clogged streets, remembering that suicide bombers and other attackers intent on killing large numbers of civilians favor traffic jams or congested areas . . . [in August] at least 360 civilians were killed and more than 470 wounded in violence throughout the country, according to an Associated Press count. '

That would be 4,320 civilians killed in political violence every year if the level stayed that low. (I take it this number excludes killed 'insurgents' and Iraqi security forces, so that actual number of war-related deaths would be much higher annually.)

It is estimated that 75,000 persons have died in the civil war in Sri Lanka since 1982, or 2800 a year.   

Iraq is higher, just with regard to civilian casualties.

The Kashmir conflict is estimated to have killed 70,000 persons since 1988, or about 3500 a year.

Iraq is higher....

Let me repeat: The level of violence at this moment in Iraq is similar to what prevailed on average during one of the 20th century's worst ethnic civil wars! It is still higher than the casualty rates in Sri Lanka and Kashmir, two of the worst ongoing conflicts in the world.