My predictions for tonight's RNC

By Libby

Sarah Palin will give a great speech. She will lie her face off.

The GOP base will go wild and proclaim that this proves she is a true reformer who is ready to lead.

They will not see the irony in that they have been accusing Obama of being a candidate who only makes great speeches but is too inexperienced to lead.

The punderati will declare this brilliant stroke a gamechanger.

Everyone else will say yes, it was a great speech but she lied her face off and by the way when is she is going to give a press interview and -- you know -- answer questions about her vast knowledge of world and domestic affairs.

The base will howl about how the left is 'attacking' Palin with the facts and they're being mean to her because she is a good, God fearing Christian woman.

The McCain campaign will issue an outraged statement saying the Democrats have crossed the line with this over the top line of attack and use it as an excuse to avoid any future press avail.

Somewhere, in an undisclosed location, Karl Rove will be chortling and popping a bottle of champagne.

[Begging my co-bloggers indulgence, this is a cross-post from The Impolitic]

Comments

[DragonScholar]

Actually I'm not sure where this is going - because McCain rolled the dice, took a gamble, it changes the game only in that it IS a gamble.

I think the Republicans will rally around Palin very well, but it's another case of them obviously rallying around someone because they're a Republican, not because they're right.

However they've got an unpredictable, slow-mo trainwreck here. The only predictability they can bring to it is to act like nothing's wrong.

The problem is that this is a great story for the press, and it's yet another big Republican mistake on top of all the others. Worse, Governor Palin is clearly NOT ready for the position - Biden will destroy her (nicely) in the debates.

One thing I think the Republicans MAY try (and I suspect they will if things get worse) is go for a total scorched-earth approach. Declare that the media and the Democrats are so gosh darn mean, they cancel all the debates, and keep attacking everyone in sight. Everything they've done before "turned up to eleven" and hope it works.

The problem is this isn't 2000 or 2004, and people smell blood. A complete neurotic meltdown and lashing out on their part could be used against them.

Like I said, a gamble. But we're waiting to see where the dice land.

[sfHeath]

It finally occurred to me that the Sarah Palin pick is the ultimate Rovian ploy of attacking your opponent's strengths. By nominating a VP pick who actually embodies every single argument they've ever falsely made against Sen. Obama, their only response to valid criticisms about her is "That's what we've been saying about Obama for years, and he's on the top of the ticket."

And since the arguments are self-evidently true about Palin, they by association must be true of Obama, right?

They're actually committing half of their ticket and - one heartbeat away - the most powerful position in the world, for the opportunity to argue nonsense about Obama again.

And I can't pull myself away from it. I'm disgusted.

[smintheus]

Pretty good set of predictions. And as you said before of her hypocrisy in parading her family while declaring them off limit, I think there'll be some slick business in the speech about her family - probably a plaintiff cry for a return to decency in America, or raising again that ugly specter of the 'politics of personal destruction' - with the intent of trying to put nearly all criticism of her out of bounds.

As I said a few days ago in a post, she and McCain are trying to create a shield against all legitimate criticism of them by means of the POW + MOM defense.

Anyway, as regards Palin's speech, I'm guessing that it's mostly going to be an attempt to (re-)introduce her to voters. It's something McCain's running mate wouldn't have to do so much if he'd picked a known quantity. That means Palin can't do what VPs traditionally do, which is to rough up the other party's presidential candidate. In fact Palin may have to remain for a long time in the "getting to know me" mode on the campaign trail. Given that she has little experience in domestic or foreign policy, that might be a good thing in a way for McCain -- but definitely a major and self-imposed weakness for his campaign.

[Libby]

The more I think about it, the more clear it becomes to me that this is a Rovian ploy. The last thing they really want is for McCain to be in the spotlight. Every time he opens his mouth it generates a round of bad press. The longer they can avoid attention to McLame, the better off they'll be.

I don't think they expected the media to get quite so feisty though which may prove to the fatal flaw. McCain hasn't given a press avail since Aug 3 or 13. I forget which now and he's regularly been surly with his pals on the bus, who aren't his pals on the bus anymore so it will be fascinating to see what happens in the long run.

For tonight though, I think it's going to go pretty much as I predict. I can hear Pat Buchanan breathlessly pronouncing the game changer already....

[Steve Hynd]

It went as you predicted.

[Libby]

And I didn't even need a crystal ball. It's depressing that it's so predictable.