Growing Optimism
By Ron Beasley
No, I'm not talking about the economy but about the election. Over at The Left Coaster CA Pol Junkie has a daily scorecard on the Electoral Vote and that's what really counts. He gives the states EVs to whatever candidate has the lead on that date. Todays results show Obama receiving 375 EVs to McCain's 163. That of course is not going to happen but there was some very significant data there never the less.
- Obama doesn't need any state where his lead now is less than six percent.
- Obama doesn't need Virginia, Ohio or Florida
Yes, the election is five weeks away and a lot can happen. But up to this point all of the mistakes have been made by the McCain campaign and the big issue is the economy where Obama kicks McCain's ass.
This is not that far from FiveThirtyEight's projection of Obama 330 - McCain 207.
Not needing Florida and Ohio will make a big difference for Obama's chances as these states have proven hugely vulnerable to GOP voterigging. No polling lead is safe when the local elites are determined to 'deliver' their states' electoral votes to the GOP.
As for Virginia, lets just say the fewer southerners Obama needs to reward by bringing into government, the better....
Posted by: Curmudgeon | October 01, 2008 at 12:49 AM