Bin Laden's goals are closer to being achieved
By Fester:
Bin Laden and the senior leadership of Al-Queada had a specific scenario in mind when they approved the 9-11 attacks. They believed that the United States would invade Afghanistan, and become embroiled in a long-standing guerrilla war. That war would lead to imperial overstretch and force a retrenchment of American power projection capacity over the intermediate term. That retrenchment would lead to the United States being unable to cover all of its strategic priorities and thus weaken the critical 'far enemy' support for 'near enemy' autocratic regimes.
That was the strategic vision behind the 9-11 attacks. And it initially failed as the US went in light to Afghanistan and had a window of opportunity to systemically defuse the underpinnings of the Taliban resurgance. And then we went to Iraq and as soon as you strike Afghanistan and replace it with Iraq in the first paragraph, reality starts to approach the original strategic intent.
Ron, in a post from last night, passes this tidbit along concerning Afghanistan:
"We are now at a tipping point, with about half of the country now penetrated by a range of Sunni militant groups including the Taliban and al Queida," Jones said. Jones said there is growing concern that Dutch and Canadian forces in Afghanistan would "call it quits."
"The US military would then need six, eight, maybe ten brigades but we just don't have that money," Jones said.
Those brigades are in the rotation cycle for Iraq and have been in the rotation cycle for the past six years. Those brigades would still be in Iraq if the US pulls down to half its current force level in the next three months (and that is not happening.) Bin Laden's objective of tying the US down and bleeding its strategic flexibility by a thousand cuts is being achieved.
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