The Palin Pick

By Ron Beasley

A USA Today Gallup poll shows that more people think Joe Biden is more qualified to be president than Sarah Palin but mostly it shows that people simply don't know who she is.

That's the lowest vote of confidence in a running mate since the elder George Bush chose then-Indiana senator Dan Quayle to join his ticket in 1988. In comparison, Delaware Sen. Joe Biden was seen as qualified by 57%-18% after Democrat Barack Obama chose him as a running mate last week.

Over at Taegan Goddard's place pollster Del Ali thinks it may be the worst pick ever.

Sarah Palin will wow cultural conservatives in areas where they may not have come out to vote before the selection. This is right out of Karl Rove's strategy of getting more of your own to show up and vote.

However, in many of the swing states that Bush carried in 2004, there were anti gay ballot measures to motivate the cultural conservatives to vote. There are very few of these measures on the ballots in those key states in 2008. Palin may not be enough for them to get out and vote. Clearly Rove felt in 2004 that Bush would not have been enough, thus the ballot measures.

In fact, as Palin's cultural views become better known -- she oppose abortion in all cases and opposes the use of birth control pills and condoms even among married couples -- she will undoubtedly scare the hell out of the soccer moms and 98% of Hillary voters. In fact, many of these women may feel insulted by this choice in that McCain and the GOP think they are stupid and would bypass their own interest (reproductive and economic) to vote for the ticket due to gender and anger that Hillary was not the nominee.

In my estimation as a pollster and analyst, while historic for the GOP in selecting their first woman on a national ticket, this choice may be the worst selection by a major party nominee for President in modern times.

But Digby has some words of caution - she may be the wingnut's wingnut but people really like her.

So, I wouldn't be too smug about Palin. She's got something about her that the people who know her really like. She has an 85% approval rating up there, which includes quite a few liberals. Her western state appeal is an amalgam of right wing populism and libertarianism, something that shouldn't be discounted among swing voters who might also find her to be an attractive working mom who manages to run the state while taking care of her snowmobile champion husband (Arctic NASCAR) and their five kids. (A politically incorrect friend of mine in Alaska called the ticket "The Maverick and the MILF" and it may work better than we think.)

I think the best thing the Obama/Biden campaign can do is ignore her.  Anything they say will be seen a sexist.  The POW thing is getting old we don't need to have it replaced with misogyny.  Above all we should stay away from this.

Comments

[distributorcap]

the pick has karl rove written all over it -- and her story will get weirder -- something is not right with this

[chris y]

Above all we should stay away from this.

Damn right. The most generous explanation of that is that Kos has been bought by Rove.

OTOH, if she were British, the mere fact that she had called her daughter Bristol would be enough to write her off as a laughing stock. Pity some things don't translate.

[chris y]

Above all we should stay away from this.

Damn right. The most generous explanation of that is that Kos has been bought by Rove.

OTOH, if she were British, the mere fact that she had called her daughter Bristol would be enough to write her off as a laughing stock. Pity some things don't translate.