Stains on the SOFA

Anderson

Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki stands accused of spoiling negotiations on the US-Iraq Status of Forces Agreement with a sudden purge of the Iraqi negotiating team. In what is described as a "make-or-break" stage of the talks, Maliki has dismissed the original negotiating team and replaced them with loyalists described as "those closest to him."

Maliki is further accused by lawmakers that this is merely a "diversionary" tactic designed to delay and avoid a decision, despite the fact that the latest version of the agreement stipulated that US forces would leave by the end of 2011, after an initial withdrawal of troops from Iraq's cities by June of 2009.

What is not entirely clear is why, exactly, Maliki is doing this after the original team had apparently maintained a fairly strong position on their country's sovereignty by refusing immunity and setting definite withdrawal dates. As with the delay in provincial elections, perhaps Maliki is trying to wait out the Bush administration in the hopes of coming back to the table with new group of, shall we hope, less ideologically motivated players on the American side. Perhaps he thinks he can win new and greater concessions in the new year.

But Maliki must be aware of the fact that one of the reasons he is in power is the presence of US troops. The Bush administration still considers him "their guy," even if he may be more inclined to co-opt Iranian support. But that political vector is not well regarded in Iraq, either. Most Iraqis and certainly the Sunni population would rather eschew Iranian influence in their country. Though we haven't heard much about him lately, Moqtada al Sadr is as opposed to Tehran's machinations as he is of American overbearing.

An answer to this puzzling delay may lie in the recent crackdowns Iraq security forces have been conducting against the Sons of Iraq in regions like Diyala province. Recent rhetoric coming from the Maliki's proxies has been less than charitable toward the Sahwa groups, with threats of mass arrest forthcoming. Indeed, there is every indication that, now the "surge" has performed its political service, Maliki is trying to rapidly consolidate his own power and put down any possible opposition. Which means that by delaying the SOFA until Bush is gone, the UN mandate expires and he can ask for immediate withdrawal of US forces.

He's a fool if he thinks this will work. He must overestimate the capabilities of his own Iraq forces. Attacks against the Sunni Sahwa will surely backfire and, if this is Maliki's "plan," he is only going to ensure a resurgence of civil war.

If anyone has any ideas as to why Maliki is scuttling what was appearing to be a fairly favorable SOFA, I'd like to hear them. Because this appears to be more serious than just a delay. Some Iraqi lawmakers are convinced that Maliki simply "doesn't want" the SOFA. I'd be more inclined to believe the "bluff" scenario were it not for the convergence of several other vectors, not the least of which is Maliki's dismissal and promised targeting of the Sons of Iraq. It shouldn't escape notice that all of Maliki's recent moves, attacks against al Sadr's Mahdi army, crackdowns on the Sunni Sahwa, and scuttling the US-Iraq SOFA, are moves against factions that oppose Iranian influence in Iraq.

Comments

[smintheus]

I think Maliki's doing what I predicted a few months ago he'd do: Drag out negotiations to keep extracting further concessions from Bush, who's desperate for some kind of SOFA agreement in order to salvage his legacy. Bush finds himself, as a lame duck, in a position similar to that of LBJ in 1968. There's no reason Maliki needs to allow any negotiations to reach completion and be ratified under Bush. He knows that Obama would want to set his own stamp if he's elected.