Russian Overreach

By BJ

I have noted before that the Russians seemed to have learned from the mistakes Israel made in its campaign against Hezbollah. It appears they've also learned from the Israelis how to dawdle about pulling your forces back after agreeing to a cease-fire. The major difference being that when the Israelis attempted a raid deep into Lebanese territory, Hezbollah made it clear they were willing and able to fight back. Georgia's military, on the other hand, has remained in its, "Please don't hurt me!" stance, which the Russians are taking rather excessive advantage of. More on that in a bit, but first compare the position of the Israeli government in 2006:

Israel has said it will continue to carry out such actions until an expanded international military force is in place to prevent Hezbollah's rearmament.

With the Russian government's position today:

Moscow also says it will only withdraw from Georgian territory once extra security measures are in place.

Similar on the surface, but as I said above, thanks in part to the lack of resistance by the Georgians, the Russians are going far beyond what the Israelis attempted after actually agreeing to a cease-fire. The Russians are continuing to advance well past the conflict zones and destroying any and all military hardware they can get their hands on.

While I don't believe they are planning an occupation or "regime change", what they are doing is just as bad in the long term. Had they remained at the cease-fire line or made limited incursions to Gori and/or Senaki to destroy the military hardware and then withdrew and kept the peace, the Georgian people could have got back on with their lives and start thinking about the idiot who got them into this mess. And while the West would have blustered and complained just as loudly, there would have been far less for them to really complain about.

Instead, the Russians have apparently decided to confirm nearly every stereotypical smear directed at them by the Georgians and have apparently lost the prudence that informed their combat response. They are rubbing salt into the Georgians' wounds, and while I still see little hope for Saakashvili's political future short of an authoritarian crack-down, the Russians are now making sure that there will be no legitimate Georgian leader who can view them with anything but distrust and hatred.

In other words, they have won the war, but are now working hard to lose the peace.

Comments

[anderson]

BJ,

Yes, I have to agree. The Russians are definitely hurting themselves at this point.

[Warren Street]

It's entirely about regime change, and that is clearly the single Russian goal in Georgia. Their rhetoric, their bluster, and now this embarrassing destruction of Georgia's infrastructure is the key to understanding the real goal of Russia right now--and that's getting the pipeline that runs through Georgia under their thumb via a proxy leader in Georgia that can follow orders from Moscow.

Georgia's army didn't so much as go into "don't hurt me mode" as it panicked and fled, as it should have. Russian artillery and tanks devastated what few weapons the Georgians had. Russia quickly dominated from the air, despite Georgian efforts to fire SAMs and defend itself. The overwhelming weight of the Russian regular army was too much, and they have been moving as if they expect little or no challenge ever since the first day.