Musharraf To Quit?

By Cernig

Via Dr. Steven Taylor at Poliblogger, the NY Times is reporting that Pakistan's President Musharraf may step down within the next 72 hours.

Faced with desertions by his political supporters and the neutrality of the Pakistani military, President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan, an important ally of the United States, is expected to resign in the next few days rather than face impeachment charges, Pakistani politicians and Western diplomats said Thursday.

His departure from office is likely to unleash new instability in the country as the two main parties in the civilian government jockey for the division of power.

I'm a little cautious on this story. Pakistani politicans and Western diplomats may well be saying this but what are the Pakistani military saying? All the reporting is one-sided, with pakistani politicians saying that the military have indicated that, as long as it is all done above board, they will step aside. But Musharraf appointed General Kayani to be head of the military after he himself gave up his uniform recisely because Kayani was a staunch Musharraf loyalist, not to mention previously head of the shadowy and powerful ISI intelligence agency.

I'll be pleasantly surprised if Mushie does go peacefully and if the military then allows the civilian government to impeach Musharraf and pick a new president without interference. But if all that happens then Kayani will have not only thrown his patron under the bus but will have taken a momentous decision, utterly out of character, about the military's future role in Pakistani affairs. On this one, I'd very much like to be an optimist but I'm inclined towards pessimism based upon previous evidence. We'll see, I suppose.

Comments

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C., I am sure Kayani is loyal to Musharraf, as I think are most of the corp commanders. But their primary loyalty, if not to the country, is to the institution of the military. This is also true of Musharraf. So, I can see a situation where the military, in the person of the corp commanders, Kayani, and Musharraf agree to Musharraf departing. I cannot see a situation where they would allow Musharraf to be humiliated. This would include suggestions like the one Zardari made and then withdrew about financial shenanigans. So, there is hope for an amicable resolution to this particular crisis. What is to be feared is what comes after.