Iraq Parliament Still Can't Agree On Elections

By Cernig

Via Matt at CFLF comes the unsurprising news that yet again Iraqi parliamentarians have punted on the provincial election law.

After struggling for hours to reach a quorum, lawmakers indefinitely postponed a special session they had called to pass the law, which has come unstuck over plans for the disputed northern city of Kirkuk and angered minority Kurds.

The delay may mean the elections, originally planned for October 1, could be put off until next year. Electoral officials have said they need months to plan once the law is passed.

The elections are seen as a crucial test of Iraq's fledgling democracy. It would be the first time Iraqis have voted since the thick of an insurgency in 2005 and could dramatically alter the sectarian and ethnic makeup of powerful regional posts.

Deputies originally passed a version of the law last month, but Kurdish lawmakers boycotted that debate over its plans for Kirkuk, and President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, rejected the bill as unconstitutional.

The provincial elections are a minefield for the Green Zone elite. All the incumbent Shiite and Sunni parties are afraid of losing some of their power to others: the Awakenings or Sadrists in independent motley - and aren't willing to go ahead with an actual vote until the Iraqi security forces have secured their majorities the polls. If the Sadrists and Sawhars get too much power, then the ISCI and Dawa can kiss goodbye to their dream of an oil-rich quasi-independent Shiite state in the South. The Kurds want their cake and to eat Kirkuk too, which everyone concerned believes would almost inevitably lead to eventual Kurdish secession. The Kurds won't rubberstamp the elections until they get that and the rest don't want to allow the elections until there's some way worked out where the Kurds don't get that. And everybody thinks the incumbent elite will lose big despite all their other efforts if the elections are held while the US-led occupation is still an open-ended one.

Far better for all the elites concerned to punt the ball downfield and hope the new year brings a new status for US forces, a new and more ameniable US president and some kind of pony to solve all the other insolveables of their Gordian Knot. The Iraqi people?  They lose.