Georgia-Russia: Another "No-one Could have Anticipated" Moment

By Cernig

My colleagues BJ and Fester have covered the rapidly developing conflict in Georgia's breakaway province of South Ossetia in fine style - here, here and here. But I wanted to point out that, although the media and the Bush administration seem to have been caught by surprise, this isn't exactly an unexpected development.

The South Ossetia issue has long been one of the "frozen conflicts" left over from the occassionally-bloody disintegration of the Soviet Union and has always been a potential source of conflict between Russia and Georgia, as has the region of Abkhazia. Attempting to get US cover for Georgian efforts to force the peoples of these regions to stay part of Georgia ( S.Ossetia's last referendum on the subject turned in a 97% majority for joining Russia instead) entirely explains Georgian keeness to send troops to Iraq and to join NATO. Georgia, despite its freedom-loving rhetoric, is probably marginally the more guilty party in sparking this conflict now - most likely in the hope of forcing America's hand now that its NATO-membership plans have been dashed.

That the US isn't all that interested in backing Georgia with military force may have been predicatble to all but the Georgian leadership - but the Bush administration must take the blame for that leadership's misapprehension of US intentions. They could have told the Georgians in no uncertain terms that they weren't worth the almost-certainty of the entirety of NATO having to go to war with Russia over but instead they mollycoddled and talked up Georgia's membership efforts even when allies like Sarkozy of France and Germany's Merkel were pointing out the obvious.

As James Joyner, who is managing editor of the Atlantic Council's webzine - an organisation dedicated to US/NATO policy and links - writes today " If the U.S. and Western Europe aren’t prepared to use force upon the invasion of Georgia by Russia, then we’ve got no business even considering inviting them to join the Alliance." But the Bush administration made that mistake anyway. The motive for that foreign policy error seems to have been simply that Georgia would send troops to Bush's favorite theatre, Iraq. Nothing more. Yet Georgia took it as a sign of American backing sufficient to allow them to challenge Russia, and thus today's events - yet another in the litany of "no-one could have anticipated" foreign policy calamities from the Bush Years.

Comments

[Ossetian people.]

Appeal to the Governments and peoples of the world!
Please, help us stop genocide of the small people of the South Ossetia!
The small country, which has been constantly destroying for 19 years by Georgian fascists.
And the world community conceal all the atrocities of Georgia for the sake of geopolitical interest of the USA.

Conflict resolution is completely in international law.
However, the Georgian side skillfully uses methods of historical falsifications, political insinuations. Georgia enjoys the patronage of a criminal government of the USA, and presents events in the world misrepresented.

At the moment the most part of South Ossetia is erased by the Georgian aggressors. There continue to die elderly, women, children.
The death toll is unknown, because of the Georgian side fired them all who tried to help the wounded. Children are among them.

Not comparable with anything Georgian cruelty let know even in 91-92 years.
When Georgians at point-blank range shot civilians of South Ossetia, as the example of the bus which was driving with people on bypass road, Zar. No one will forget it!
Georgian fascists made all people go out, from the bus and fired them. They also fired point-blank women and children and kids . They fired even the little three-year-old boy, who hid away under the body of his mother.

What else can we say of Georgia?
They buried people alive, burnt them and tortured them in different methods. After all that the world community is silent and Georgians continue to kill. Saakashvili doesn’t feel sorry for anybody, even for his Georgians.
For him, the notion of “people” and “meat” is not much different and probably, he prefers more the second.

There is only one way for peace - it is declaration of the independence by the world community.
We call on all decent people of the world not to remain indifferent to the fate of the Ossetian people.

[Alex]

The “South Ossetian People’s” comments above were undoubtedly drafted by in Moscow’s FSB HQ. Let’s get real here! This is all part of major power play by Russia. First Russia managed, by pressuring Germany’s Melke and others depended on their natural gas, to block Georgia’s membership of NATO. Then came time to punish Georgia for their western leanings and "pour encourager l'autre!”. Russia is the primary supporter of the Ossetian separatist. They undoubtedly helped to set up a major provocation – bombings and attacks on Georgian forces – when Georgia bit on the hook Russia surprisingly enough had major forces ready – prepositioned right across the border and all set to intervene. The UN must immediately condemn Russia’s aggression and the US should express their complete support for Georgia and send military supply to its forces.

[bobityobitty]

97% of South Ossetians voted to join Russia, I am no fan of Russia, but do we really have any business propping Georgia up, and letting them suck us into a meaningless war with Russia, Bush should of been implicit with Georgia in the beginning, you start something and your on your own