Georgia Trying To Surrender?

By Cernig

The BBC reports that Georgia says it has withdrawn to its original start line and tried to begin a voluntray ceasefire, but that Russian forces continue to attack Georgian positions. The Russians say they've had no communication from the Georgian authorities about any such ceasefire and that in any case Georgian troops still hold positions in South Ossetia.

Georgia has said its troops have pulled out of the breakaway region of South Ossetia and that Russian forces are in control of its capital, Tskhinvali. But Russia said that while heavy artillery had been seen leaving the territory, Georgian troops were still present in other areas of the region. Georgia's foreign ministry said it had ordered a ceasefire, and called for immediate talks with Russia.

A later report adds:

Georgia's announcement of its ceasefire came in a statement from the foreign ministry, stating that Georgia "today stopped firing in the South Ossetian conflict zone and is ready to begin talks with Russia on a ceasefire and cessation of hostilities". It said a note had been passed to the Russian embassy in Georgia to that effect.

But a Russian foreign ministry official was quoted by Interfax saying "our information does not confirm the Georgian statement". "There are indications that exchanges of fire are continuing and the Georgian forces have not been fully withdrawn from the conflict zone," he said.

So far, as Daniel Larison notes, Russia hasn't sent ground troops into Georgia proper. That would certainly be an innapropriate response to Georgia's beginning a shooting war in South Ossetia.

The fact is that Russia has yet to advance its ground forces beyond the separatist regions, and it has given no indication in its movements or its rhetoric that it intends to do anything in the way of “reabsorbing” or annexing Georgia.  This is irresponsible alarmism.  While some suspect that the endgame is to overthrow Saakashvili, we cannot know that, either.  As hard as it is for some people to believe, Russia still seems to be defending the status quo ante and exacting punishment on Saakashvili’s government for his blunder.  When that starts to change, I will be among the first to acknowledge it, because at that point Russia’s fairly limited response will have mutated into something else.  There are parallels with the war in Lebanon two years ago: Israel could have waged a limited, focused campaign against Hizbullah that would have had the backing of most other countries, or it could engage in the wholesale wrecking of an entire country and lose international sympathy, and it chose the latter.  To the extent that the Russians are already starting to imitate Israel’s response in targeting public infrastructure, I think they are making a mistake.  The indiscriminate nature of the fighting so far is very troubling, seeing as it has already killed 1,500 people.

But Russian bombing of apparently civilian targets within Georgia proper also brings to mind Israeli bombings of infrastructure in Lebanon back in 2006 - something which was widely condemned as "collective punishment" and rightly so. Despite the blame for actual hostilities (leaving aside the tangled question of who inticed or incited the other) being firmly on Georgian shoulders, as the comparative distribution of civilian suffering so far bears out - over 1,500 dead and perhaps 30,000 out of a population of 70,000 displaced in South Ossetia versus around 300 dead and about 10,000 displaced in Georgia proper. However, if Russia has it in mind to carry out an Israeli-style punitive campaign into Georgia proper, that should indeed be condemned. As my colleague BJ pointed out this morning, that's an all too easy line to cross.

I noticed today that the UK mainstream media have finally picked up the oil pipeline angle we've been talking about for the last couple of days here at newshoggers. The conservative tabloid Daily Mail is predictably "ZOMG!" about it and conservative pundits here in the US have linked their report as fuel to their own kneejerk commie-hatin' reactions (despite the fact the old Soviet Union is dead and gone and Putin is as capitalist as Murdoch). I'll leave the last word on that to Daniel Larison too:

Note well that the same people who are warning desperately that Russia is trying to get its hands on the BTC pipeline are the same people who will deny to their dying breath that oil had anything to do with the invasion of Iraq.  It might be that they have a point about Iraq, but just watch how they attribute the most mercenary ambitions to other powers that they absolutely refuse to contemplate when thinking about our policies.  Note also how keeping the BTC pipeline from falling under Russian control or influence has become the most frequently-cited reason among Westerners why we should help the Georgians (i.e., they are urging us to back Georgia in a war for oil, or at least access to oil).

Indeed.

Update: Hilzoy provides some level-headed analysis, well worth a read.