Crosstabs to the rescue...

By Fester:

CQ Politics is reporting some 'tough' news for the Obama campaign due to recent polling by Rasmussan:

Thirty percent of conservative Democrats say they'll vote for John McCain over Barack Obama, according to a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted during the two weeks ending July 24.

Oh MY Gosh --- 30% of conservative Democrats may vote for a Republican.  How is it plausible for Obama to even hope of winning as 30% of a subgroup must be a decisive portion of his coalition.

But wait --- what is this in the next paragraph --- the crosstabs are coming to the rescue:

In all, Rasmussen said 43 percent of Democrats considered themselves liberal, 37 percent said they were moderate and 18 percent were conservative.

5.4% of the surveyed Democrats consider themselves conservative Democrats AND likely to vote for John McCain.  Conservative Democrats are the Democrats most likely to flip at the Presidential level.  Given that Bill Clinton, Al Gore and John Kerry maxed out their support from Democrats at roughly 90% of all Democrats who voted, Obama is ahead of the game.  He can still bleed support from moderate and liberal Democrats to John McCain or Ralph Nader and still match the proportional take of any other Democrat in my direct memory.  And given the larger number of Democrats in this electoral pool, Obama's cushion is greater than it has been in the past.