The Possible War with Iran

By BJ

While I do not give great odds for a US/Israeli strike on Iran in the waning days of the Bush administration, the possibility is certainly still there. Of course, as been noted here almost too many times to count, the stated rationale for such an attack is a steaming load of that which exits the south ends of a northbound herd of cattle, but that's never stopped the Bush team before.

In any case, I wanted to point to this excellent article by John Robb pointing out the broad strokes of what's likely to occur if such an attack takes place.

Any attack by the US/Israel on Iran will be ostensibly aimed at suppressing the Iranian nuclear program. However, it will quickly evolve into something much larger, an airpower-based EBO (effects based operation). The objective of this EBO will regime change (see the brief: "Collapsing Iran", April 2006, for more details on this) without a ground invasion.

As Robb notes, there are many who think that near sole reliance on airpower is the best way for the US to fight its wars. It is important to remember that one of the most successful campaigns of this type, the 1998 campaign over Kosovo, took about two-and-a-half months to break the will of a tiny power without little preparation to resist such a campaign and no capacity to cause pain to the wider world or its attackers in an attempt to shorten the campaign's duration.

Iran is much larger, has had time to study and prepare, and has the capacity to inflict damage on its opponents directly and others indirectly.

the Iranians have developed what they call a "Passive Defense" run by its paramilitary (the Basij), based on the lessons learned by Hezbollah during the 2006 war with Israel. Mansharof and Savyon have explored the tenets of Passive Defense with an excellent article now available on MEMRI.

. . .

In addition to Passive Defense, the Iranians are also likely planning asymmetric offensive operations aimed at shortening the engagement -- a form of strategic barrage designed to limit the duration of the EBO. . . . In Iran's case, this means a series of attacks (a combination of guerrilla, missile, and small boat attacks) on oil facilities and oil transportation routes with the intent of making the costs to the global economy so great that political pressure will quickly force an end to the engagement.

And that doesn't even get into the whole Iran-backed militias in Iraq or the groups they have relationships with in Afghanistan. Whatever else, it is abundantly clear that any attack on Iran will incur a far greater cost in blood and treasure than those trying to sell the idea are willing or capable of admitting.