Poland Wants More Sweeteners On Missile Defense

By Cernig

Poland has rejected the current offer of US sweeteners in return for their basing US missile defense interceptors in their nation as insufficient, in a blow to Bush's plans. However the Poles are saying a deal can still be done if more is offered and talks will continue.

In the months-long negotiations, Tusk's centre-right government had sought billions of dollars worth of U.S. investment to upgrade Polish air defences in return for hosting 10 missile interceptors.

...Political analysts said Tusk's rebuff to Washington demonstrated a new Polish self-confidence on the global stage. Warsaw is one of Washington's firmest allies in the region and has troops serving alongside its ally in Iraq and Afghanistan.

"This is the first time that Poland has said 'no' to the U.S. ... It certainly sends a signal to Washington that Poland's support should not be taken for granted in any circumstances," said Pawel Swieboda, head of demosEuropa, a Warsaw think-tank.

"But it is also the case that the government greatly raised expectations and that these were never very realistic.

The Polish government are including a demand for long-term US Patriot missile basing, with troops to operate them, in their country - something some analysts feel is excessive. However, the Polish people are mostly opposed to the missile shield deal in the first place, according to polls.

The Bush administration has said if Poland rejects hosting the interceptors, they will next look at Lithuania, which lies to the NorthWest - which would serve mostly to undermine claims that the interceptors are to address a threat from Iran and solidify Russian beliefs that the missile shield is ultimately an attempt to ressurect a full Reagan-style "Star Wars" program aimed at erroding the Russian deterrent. Russia has said the missile shield will kick off a new arms race and make the world a less safe place.

On balance, the Russians appear to be correct. The same neoconservative think tanks that first devised the missile shield plan taken up by the Bush administration have since been pushing for an expansion of the shield to include space-based interceptors - something that would first require abrogation of key arms control treaties on weaponry in space and doubtless lead to others, mainly Russia and China, looking to station weapons permanently in orbit as well as to new develpment of interceptor-evading nuclear missiles and a new build-up of conventional Russian forces aimed at a potential threat from the West. Many would say all that far outweighs the benefits of having a dubious defense (placed far too far North) against an entirely hypothetical Iranian missile threat.