Iran Responds To EU Offer

By Cernig

Iran has sent an official letter of response to the P5+1 group's latest offer on nuclear negotiations. No-one knows what's in it yet but the Iranians telephoned to confirm it has been sent and diplomats expect it to arrive today. The FT reports that the Iranian senior negotiator had been “positive and ­constructive” during the phonecall, according to a spokes man for Javier Solana, the European Union’s foreign policy chief.

Iranian media reported Mr Jalili as saying that Iran’s answer “focused on commonalities and a constructive and innovative view”.

Western diplomats believe that Iran’s response will be critical in determining how the next phase of negotiations between Iran and the international community plays out.

If Iran responds positively, both sides might move to the first stage of negotiations, called “freeze for freeze”. This would see Iran freezing any expansion of its uranium enrichment facility at Natanz. However, it would be able to continue the uranium enrichment process. The international community would, in turn, freeze moves to apply further sanctions on Iran.

Western diplomats insist that this phase can last no more than six weeks before Iran comes under pressure to suspend the enrichment process altogether. But some suspect that Iran might demand that the “freeze-for-freeze” phase lasts longer.

A diplomat from one of the six countries involved in talks with Iran – the US, UK, France, China and Russia plus Germany – said it was unlikely Iran would give a clear-cut answer in its letter. “The Iranians will play for time, it won’t be a straightforward response.”

If, however, the response is deemed insufficiently positive, pressure will mount for a new round of United Nations sanctions in the autumn. It would also add to the growing speculation that Israel might bomb Iran’s nuclear facility before the end of the year.

Here's hoping that Iran has indeed accepted the notion of a "freeze-on-freeze" which would defuse some tension in the region, and that hawks in the P5+1 nations, especially the US, don't decide to torpedo possible negotiations by dismissing any Iranian offer as unrealistic whether it is or not.

Doubtless more on this tomorrow.