Better to be lucky . . .

By BJ

(Since everyone else is getting in on the action, I thought I'd add my two cents)

The continuing firestorm over Maliki's comments regarding a timeline for US troops to be withdrawn strikes me as a very lucky break for Obama, particularly given the White House's inadvertent efforts on Obama's behalf.

Not that I think Obama is on the wrong side of this debate obviously, but the question of who's judgement on Iraq was the better one was turning into a tricky issue. As Jazz Shaw over at TMV notes, the debate over Iraq can be split into three parts. On the first two, Obama scores points for being against the invasion in the first place, but McCain was picking up props for his support of the "Surge".

Granted, as has been noted here and elsewhere, the reduction of violence in Iraq has far more to do with the Anbar Awakening, the finishing of the religious/ethnic cleansing/re-ordering of Iraq's demographic make-up along with the walling off of surviving minority pockets, and the Sadrist cease-fire, rather than the small increase in troops the "Surge" brought about. Not to mention that the political reconciliation that the "Surge" was supposed to be about hasn't actually took place. And add to all that the fact that blowing the US reserves in Iraq meant that the under-resourced Afghan conflict was able to spiral well out of control, proving that even were the "Surge" to be the tactical success it's boosters claim it to be, it would still be a strategic mistake.

While all of that remains true, the MSM has internalized the "fact" that the "Surge" has been a wondrous success, and no amount of logical argument will push them off that storyline. McCain's support for it therefore works highly in his favour. If McCain could have turned the Iraq judgement debate into one over the "Surge", with the media at his back, Obama would have been in trouble.

Instead, Maliki's comments have shifted the ball back into Obama's court, on to the third part of the debate which is a focus on where most Americans, and most Iraqis, would like to see US troops heading over the next couple of years. Namely, out of Iraq.

McCain's on the wrong side of that debate and everyone just got reminded of it.

(For a rather detailed examination of just how screwed McCain is over this, check out Hilzoy's impressive post over at Sullivan's place.)

Even more luck on Obama's part is the timing of all this. This happens at the exact moment Obama is on his (probably over-hyped) foreign tour, adding heft to his prescient focus on Afghanistan, being greeted with standing ovations at a military base in Kuwait, and likely soon be greeted by huge crowds in Europe, where he will once again be able to put his rhetorical talents to great use. Most importantly, this means McCain has been put well on the defensive on the foreign policy debate at the precise time that the press is intensely focused on foreign policy.

Obama couldn't have planned a better weekend.