Turning an Eye to Pakistan

By BJ

Remember back in the days before the US presidential race and other associated dramas sucked all of the oxygen out of the news cycle and there was this place called Pakistan getting a lot attention over things like the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, the possibility of destabilization or disintegration, and the ultimate election of an anti-US Ally-Musarraff coalition government, all in a nuclear-armed state lying athwart the major supply route for US and Nato forces fighting in Afghanistan?

Yeah, I'd mostly forgotten it myself.

There was a little twig a few days ago when it was reported that the US had killed a bunch of Pakistani soldiers, which seemed like a bad idea due to that whole "lying athwart the major supply route" deal. It also seems like it may have boosted the anti-Musarraf forces within the country.

Mullahs and communists, and it seemed everything in between, came out in Pakistan Friday in a massive rally against President Pervez Musharraf, seeking to force the government to restore the judges fired by the U.S.-backed president.

In a huge challenge to Musharraf, and also to the newly elected government, tens of thousands of ordinary Pakistanis confounded all expectations by coming out in noisy, excited support of an independent judiciary.

The Pakistan People's Party, which leads the coalition government, has been resisting the reinstatement of the 60 judges removed by Musharraf in November, suggesting that the issue did not resonate with most voters.

. . .

The People's Party, which came to power after elections in February, has repeatedly promised to restore the judges, led by deposed chief justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, but has so far come up with increasingly complex formulations in what many have seen as delaying tactics.

It is thought that the procrastination has been as a result of pressure exerted by Musharraf, along with — it is alleged by the lawyers — intervention by Washington on the president's behalf. The second biggest party in the coalition, Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-N, walked out in protest and has now joined the lawyers on the streets.

. . .

Pakistan's judicial crisis started in March last year when Musharraf first tried to dismiss the chief justice. The lawyers' movement was spawned by a campaign to protect Chaudhry, with the black-suited attorneys turning themselves into a potent street force. Musharraf's patience finally snapped in November, when he fired the chief justice and 60 other independent-minded superior court judges.

There had been a widely held view that the lawyers' campaign had run out of steam and that the Long March would be weakly supported, thereby signaling the end of the movement as a center of power.

But the strength in numbers and the enthusiasm of the crowd on Friday was a major surprise and is likely to have rocked the government and the presidency, pointing to further political instability ahead if the judges issue continues to fester.

"The writing is on the wall for Musharraf and the government," said political activist Tahira Abdullah. "What kind of revolution do they want? Off with their heads? This anger can be channelled in the wrong way."

That last is the is of course, the most worrying point of the whole situation. Instability in Pakistan is a result nobody really wants, but that the various parties involved seem incapable of avoiding. And the anti-American sentiment, deserved or not, (and I'm guessing it's at least partly deserved given their reaction to the election and since), isn't a terribly hopeful sign either.

All in all, a reminder that we should probably be following the situation a little closer than we have. Ignoring that part of the world has a tendency to come back around and bite us in the hindquarters at the most inopportune moments.

Comments

[Steve Hynd]

Great post, BJ and you're correct, we should all be paying more attenion to this stuff - especially with the Taliban currently on an apparent upswing in their cycle again. Sharif vs Musharraf is a situation almost guaranteed to shake awake those within the intel agencies who always had very close ties to the Taliban.

Regards, C